Sassuolo
vs
Genoa
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Sassuolo 0–1 Genoa
The model makes it 34% Sassuolo, 29% draw, 37% Genoa — fair odds of 2.94, 3.45 and 2.70.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Sassuolo 1.27, Genoa 1.34.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.
A tight game: Sassuolo and Genoa are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Sassuolo's rating is built from 49 Serie A matches and Genoa's from 49, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 870 matches.
Key facts
- Sassuolo are 17th on 8 points from 11 games; Genoa are 13th on 13 points from 11 games — Serie A.
- Sassuolo have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to AS Roma.
- Genoa have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to AC Milan.
- Last 6 meetings: Genoa 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 12 April 2026, ended Genoa 2–1 Sassuolo.
More Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Sassuolo vs Genoa
Has the model earned this number?
Genoa at 37%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Sassuolo vs Genoa
Sassuolo
Serie A
- L0-3away to AS Roma7 November 2026
- L2-4Fiorentina2 November 2026
- L2-6Lazio27 October 2026
- L0-2away to Como24 October 2026
- L2-4away to Frosinone16 October 2026
Genoa
Serie A
- L1-2AC Milan8 November 2026
- W2-1away to Lecce1 November 2026
- W2-0Juventus28 October 2026
- W1-0Venezia25 October 2026
- L0-2away to AS Roma17 October 2026
What these results say
- Sassuolo did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Sassuolo conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Sassuolo had three goals or more.
- Genoa scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Sassuolo | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 29 | -13 | 8 |
| 13 | Genoa | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Sassuolo
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 26% today
Genoa
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 6% today
From our Serie A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Genoa vs Sassuolo
Genoa and Sassuolo have met 6 times in the records we hold, Genoa has won 4 of them to Sassuolo's 0, with 2 drawn.
The record
Genoa won the last one 2–1 on 12 Apr 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 7 |
| Sassuolo | 0 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 11 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 18 goals, an average of 3.00 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 12 Apr 2026
Serie AGenoa 2–1 Sassuolo - 3 Nov 2025
Serie ASassuolo 1–2 Genoa - 12 May 2024
Serie AGenoa 2–1 Sassuolo - 22 Dec 2023
Serie ASassuolo 1–2 Genoa - 6 Jan 2022
Serie ASassuolo 1–1 Genoa - 17 Oct 2021
Serie AGenoa 2–2 Sassuolo
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Sassuolo's attack rates 20% above Genoa's, and Genoa concede 29% fewer than Sassuolo. How the ratings are derived.
Leading scorers: Sassuolo and Genoa
Sassuolo
No player in Serie A's leading scorers — 16 league goals as a side.
Genoa
GoalsAssists
- M. Osmajić41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Genoa the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Sassuolo against 1.34 for Genoa. Sassuolo's attack/defence rating is 1/1.26 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.83/0.9 for Genoa.
How the model reaches 37% for Genoa to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Genoa to win. Then home advantage takes away 2 points, Sassuolo's ratings add 2 points and Genoa's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 37%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage34%−2
- Sassuolo's ratings36%+2
- Genoa's ratings37%+1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Sassuolo at home · Genoa away
League matches only, Serie A, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
SassuoloGenoa
Sassuolo are 17th after 11 Serie A matches (between 9th and 17th so far); Genoa are 13th after 11 (between 11th and 19th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Sassuolo 11, Genoa 11.
Sassuolo score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Genoa have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Sassuolo
- vs Napoli29 Nov · Serie Awin 21%
- at Venezia6 Dec · Serie Awin 39%
- at Lecce13 Dec · Serie Awin 38%
- vs Parma20 Dec · Serie Awin 40%
- at Inter3 Jan · Serie Awin 10%
Genoa
- at Inter29 Nov · Serie Awin 14%
- vs Torino6 Dec · Serie Awin 38%
- at Atalanta13 Dec · Serie Awin 26%
- vs Udinese20 Dec · Serie Awin 42%
- at Cagliari3 Jan · Serie Awin 34%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.