Gençlerbirliği S.K.
vs
Gaziantep FK
Süper Lig prediction
Our model says: Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1–0 Gaziantep FK
The model makes it 49% Gençlerbirliği S.K., 27% draw, 24% Gaziantep FK — fair odds of 2.04, 3.70 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1.65, Gaziantep FK 1.01.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,919 settled matches.
Edge to Gençlerbirliği S.K.: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 10 November 2026. Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s rating is built from 45 Süper Lig matches and Gaziantep FK's from 45, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 747 matches.
Key facts
- Gençlerbirliği S.K. are 14th on 11 points from 11 games; Gaziantep FK are 16th on 8 points from 11 games — Süper Lig.
- Gençlerbirliği S.K. have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Beşiktaş.
- Gaziantep FK have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Kasımpaşa.
- Last 6 meetings: Gaziantep FK 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 1 February 2026, ended Gençlerbirliği S.K. 2–1 Gaziantep FK.
More Süper Lig predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Gaziantep FK
Has the model earned this number?
Gençlerbirliği S.K. at 49%: of 2,924 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.0% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Gaziantep FK
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Süper Lig
- L0-3away to Beşiktaş8 November 2026
- W5-0Alanyaspor2 November 2026
- L0-2away to Konyaspor25 October 2026
- L0-1Galatasaray17 October 2026
- D2-2Amed10 October 2026
Gaziantep FK
Süper Lig
- L0-2Kasımpaşa6 November 2026
- L0-2away to Trabzonspor1 November 2026
- L1-3Erzurumspor FK24 October 2026
- L1-2away to Başakşehir18 October 2026
- L0-3Çorum FK11 October 2026
What these results say
- Gençlerbirliği S.K. failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Gençlerbirliği S.K. conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Gaziantep FK did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Gaziantep FK conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Süper Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 11 |
| 16 | Gaziantep FK | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 12% today
Gaziantep FK
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 62% today
From our Süper Lig season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Gaziantep FK vs Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Gaziantep FK and Gençlerbirliği S.K. have met 6 times in the records we hold, Gaziantep FK has won 3 of them to Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s 2, with 1 drawn.
The record
Gençlerbirliği S.K. won the last one 2–1 on 1 Feb 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gaziantep FK | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 7 |
| Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 10 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 17 goals, an average of 2.83 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 1 Feb 2026
Süper LigGençlerbirliği S.K. 2–1 Gaziantep FK - 23 Aug 2025
Süper LigGaziantep FK 2–1 Gençlerbirliği S.K. - 2 Mar 2021
Süper LigGaziantep FK 2–1 Gençlerbirliği S.K. - 31 Oct 2020
Süper LigGençlerbirliği S.K. 1–1 Gaziantep FK - 24 Jan 2020
Süper LigGençlerbirliği S.K. 1–0 Gaziantep FK - 26 Aug 2019
Süper LigGaziantep FK 4–1 Gençlerbirliği S.K.
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s attack rates 17% above Gaziantep FK's, and Gençlerbirliği S.K. concede 11% fewer than Gaziantep FK. That gives Gençlerbirliği S.K. the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Gaziantep FK | 0.60 | 1.42 |
| Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 0.70 | 1.27 |
How the call on Gençlerbirliği S.K. v Gaziantep FK has moved
First published on 7 Nov at 51% / 26% / 23% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 49% / 27% / 24%: the biggest move is Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Gençlerbirliği S.K. win49%▼ −2
- Draw27%▲ +1
- Gaziantep FK win24%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Gençlerbirliği S.K. the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Gençlerbirliği S.K. against 1.01 for Gaziantep FK. Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.27 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.42 for Gaziantep FK.
How the model reaches 49% for Gençlerbirliği S.K. to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Gençlerbirliği S.K. to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s ratings add 3 points and Gaziantep FK's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 49%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage43%+6
- Both sides at this match's level42%−1
- Gençlerbirliği S.K.'s ratings45%+3
- Gaziantep FK's ratings49%+4
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Gençlerbirliği S.K. at home · Gaziantep FK away
League matches only, Süper Lig, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Gençlerbirliği S.K.Gaziantep FK
Gençlerbirliği S.K. are 14th after 11 Süper Lig matches (between 1st and 16th so far); Gaziantep FK are 16th after 11 (between 3rd and 16th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Süper Lig matches this season: Gençlerbirliği S.K. 11, Gaziantep FK 11.
Gençlerbirliği S.K. score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Gaziantep FK have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
- at Samsunspor28 Nov · Süper Ligwin 34%
- vs Eyüpspor6 Dec · Süper Ligwin 59%
- at Kocaelispor13 Dec · Süper Ligwin 25%
- vs Çorum FK20 Dec · Süper Ligwin 39%
- at Rizespor17 Jan · Süper Ligwin 30%
Gaziantep FK
- vs Amed28 Nov · Süper Ligwin 20%
- at Konyaspor5 Dec · Süper Ligwin 25%
- vs Beşiktaş14 Dec · Süper Ligwin 18%
- at Samsunspor20 Dec · Süper Ligwin 28%
- vs Galatasaray17 Jan · Süper Ligwin 14%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.