Manchester City
vs
Fulham
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Manchester City 2–0 Fulham
The model makes it 60% Manchester City, 23% draw, 17% Fulham — fair odds of 1.67, 4.35 and 5.88.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Manchester City 2.07, Fulham 0.86.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: Manchester City are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Manchester City's rating is built from 48 Premier League matches and Fulham's from 48, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 860 matches.
Key facts
- Manchester City are 3rd on 21 points from 10 games; Fulham are 15th on 10 points from 10 games — Premier League.
- Manchester City are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Nottingham Forest.
- Fulham are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Newcastle.
- Last 6 meetings: Manchester City 6 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 11 February 2026, ended Manchester City 3–0 Fulham.
More Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Manchester City vs Fulham
Has the model earned this number?
Manchester City at 60%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Manchester City vs Fulham
Manchester City
Premier League
- L1-3away to Nottingham Forest7 November 2026
- L0-1Brighton31 October 2026
- L1-2away to Aston Villa24 October 2026
- W3-2Ipswich17 October 2026
- W3-0away to Liverpool11 October 2026
Fulham
Premier League
- D1-1Newcastle7 November 2026
- D1-1away to Aston Villa31 October 2026
- W1-0away to Coventry24 October 2026
- W1-0Hull City17 October 2026
- L1-2away to Ipswich10 October 2026
What these results say
- Manchester City scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Manchester City conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Manchester City had three goals or more.
- Fulham scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Fulham had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Manchester City | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 21 | 13 | +8 | 21 |
| 15 | Fulham | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Manchester City
Chance to finish in the top four · 84% today
Fulham
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 17% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Fulham vs Manchester City
Fulham and Manchester City have met 6 times in the records we hold, Manchester City has won 6 of them to Fulham's 0.
The record
Manchester City won the last one 3–0 on 11 Feb 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fulham | 0 | 0 | 6 | 7 | 22 |
| Manchester City | 6 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 7 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 29 goals, an average of 4.83 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 11 Feb 2026
Premier LeagueManchester City 3–0 Fulham - 2 Dec 2025
Premier LeagueFulham 4–5 Manchester City - 25 May 2025
Premier LeagueFulham 0–2 Manchester City - 5 Oct 2024
Premier LeagueManchester City 3–2 Fulham - 11 May 2024
Premier LeagueFulham 0–4 Manchester City - 2 Sep 2023
Premier LeagueManchester City 5–1 Fulham
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Manchester City's attack rates 88% above Fulham's, and Manchester City concede 10% fewer than Fulham. That gives Manchester City the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Fulham | 0.82 | 0.84 |
| Manchester City | 1.54 | 0.76 |
Leading scorers: Manchester City and Fulham
Manchester City
GoalsAssists
- E. Haaland90
- R. Cherki52
Fulham
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Manchester City a 15.3% chance of the title and Fulham 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How the call on Manchester City v Fulham has moved
First published on 7 Nov at 62% / 23% / 15% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 60% / 23% / 17%: the biggest move is Manchester City's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Manchester City win60%▼ −2
- Draw23%=
- Fulham win17%▲ +2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Manchester City the highest probability at 60%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Manchester City against 0.86 for Fulham. Manchester City's attack/defence rating is 1.54/0.76 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.82/0.84 for Fulham.
How the model reaches 60% for Manchester City to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Manchester City to win. Then home advantage adds 4 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Manchester City's ratings add 11 points and Fulham's ratings add 9 points, which lands on the published 60%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage41%+4
- Both sides at this match's level40%−1
- Manchester City's ratings51%+11
- Fulham's ratings60%+9
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Manchester City at home · Fulham away
League matches only, Premier League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Manchester CityFulham
Manchester City are 3rd after 10 Premier League matches (between 1st and 7th so far); Fulham are 15th after 10 (between 12th and 19th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Manchester City 10, Fulham 10.
Manchester City score most often in the 46–60 minute window (7 goals); Fulham have let in 2 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Manchester City
- vs Napoli24 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 64%
- at Arsenal29 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 26%
- vs Leeds2 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 55%
- at Brentford5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 46%
- at Barcelona8 Dec · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 24%
Fulham
- vs Bournemouth29 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 32%
- at Tottenham3 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 32%
- at Everton6 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 29%
- vs Brentford12 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 32%
- at Leeds19 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 28%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.