Vitória SC
vs
FC Porto
Primeira Liga prediction
Our model says: Vitória SC 0–1 FC Porto
The model makes it 17% Vitória SC, 25% draw, 58% FC Porto — fair odds of 5.88, 4.00 and 1.72. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (14%).
Expected goals: Vitória SC 0.73, FC Porto 1.83.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,563 settled matches.
One-sided: FC Porto are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Vitória SC's rating is built from 43 Primeira Liga matches and FC Porto's from 43, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 692 matches.
Key facts
- Vitória SC are 11th on 8 points from 9 games; FC Porto are top on 27 points from 9 games — Primeira Liga.
- Vitória SC have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 5-0 win at home to Maritimo.
- FC Porto are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 1-0 win away to GIL Vicente.
- Last 6 meetings: FC Porto 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 18 January 2026, ended Vitória SC 0–1 FC Porto.
More Primeira Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Vitória SC vs FC Porto
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Porto at 58% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 1,179 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Vitória SC vs FC Porto
Vitória SC
Primeira Liga
- W5-0Maritimo23 October 2026
- L0-2away to Benfica11 October 2026
- D1-1Moreirense20 September 2026
- L1-2away to Academico Viseu12 September 2026
- D0-0Casa Pia6 September 2026
FC Porto
Primeira Liga
- W1-0away to GIL Vicente24 October 2026
- W2-1away to Maritimo10 October 2026
- W3-1Benfica20 September 2026
- W4-1away to Casa Pia12 September 2026
- W2-1Moreirense4 September 2026
What these results say
- Vitória SC failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Porto won every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Porto scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Porto conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primeira Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Vitória SC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 8 |
| 1 | FC Porto | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 4 | +17 | 27 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Porto vs Vitória SC
FC Porto and Vitória SC have met 6 times in the records we hold, FC Porto has won 4 of them to Vitória SC's 1, with 1 drawn.
The record
FC Porto won the last one 1–0 on 18 Jan 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 5 |
| Vitória SC | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 12 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 17 goals, an average of 2.83 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 18 Jan 2026
Primeira LigaVitória SC 0–1 FC Porto - 4 Dec 2025
Taça da LigaFC Porto 1–3 Vitória SC - 11 Aug 2025
Primeira LigaFC Porto 3–0 Vitória SC - 24 Feb 2025
Primeira LigaFC Porto 1–1 Vitória SC - 21 Sep 2024
Primeira LigaVitória SC 0–3 FC Porto - 17 Apr 2024
Taça de PortugalFC Porto 3–1 Vitória SC
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| FC Porto | 1.41 | 0.59 |
| Vitória SC | 0.82 | 1.03 |
Leading scorers: Vitória SC and FC Porto
Vitória SC
No player in Primeira Liga's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
FC Porto
GoalsAssists
- Gabri Veiga43
- Borja Sainz40
- André Silva32
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Vitória SC carry a model rating of 6.74 against 7.29 for FC Porto. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.73 goals for Vitória SC and 1.83 for FC Porto. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Vitória SC rate 0.82 in attack and 1.03 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Porto rate 1.41 and 0.59.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Vitória SC a 0% chance of the title and FC Porto 58.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,299 correct results out of 4,800 settled predictions (48%), with 474 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Porto the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.73 expected goals for Vitória SC against 1.83 for FC Porto. Vitória SC's attack/defence rating is 0.82/1.03 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.41/0.59 for FC Porto.
How the model reaches 58% for FC Porto to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for FC Porto to win. Then home advantage takes away 4 points, Vitória SC's ratings add 5 points and FC Porto's ratings add 21 points, which lands on the published 58%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage32%−4
- Vitória SC's ratings37%+5
- FC Porto's ratings58%+21
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Vitória SC at home · FC Porto away
League matches only, Primeira Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primeira Liga matches this season: Vitória SC 9, FC Porto 9.
FC Porto score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); Vitória SC have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Vitória SC
- vs Estrela28 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 46%
- at Estoril6 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 37%
- vs Alverca13 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 40%
- at Santa Clara20 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 25%
FC Porto
- at Feyenoord24 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 41%
- vs Sporting CP29 Nov · Primeira Ligawin 46%
- at Santa Clara6 Dec · Primeira Ligawin 50%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.