Borussia Mönchengladbach
vs
SC Paderborn 07
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1–0 SC Paderborn 07
The model makes it 40% Borussia Mönchengladbach, 28% draw, 32% SC Paderborn 07 — fair odds of 2.50, 3.57 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.42, SC Paderborn 07 1.21.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Key facts
- Borussia Mönchengladbach are bottom on 0 points from 5 games; SC Paderborn 07 are 15th on 5 points from 6 games — Bundesliga.
- Borussia Mönchengladbach have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to 1. FC Köln.
- SC Paderborn 07 have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Werder Bremen.
- Last 6 meetings: Borussia Mönchengladbach 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 17 July 2021, ended SC Paderborn 07 3–1 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
More Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Paderborn 07
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Borussia Mönchengladbach at 40% here. Across 3,865 settled matches (as of 17 October 2026), 1,804 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Paderborn 07
Borussia Mönchengladbach
- L1-2away to 1. FC Köln11 October 2026
- L3-4FSV Mainz 0519 September 2026
- L0-5away to SC Freiburg12 September 2026
- L3-4SV Elversberg5 September 2026
- L0-3away to RB Leipzig29 August 2026
SC Paderborn 07
- D2-2away to Werder Bremen17 October 2026
- L0-2VfB Stuttgart10 October 2026
- W3-11899 Hoffenheim20 September 2026
- L0-3away to Borussia Dortmund12 September 2026
- L0-1SC Freiburg5 September 2026
What these results say
- Borussia Mönchengladbach did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Borussia Mönchengladbach conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Borussia Mönchengladbach had three goals or more.
- SC Paderborn 07 conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- SC Paderborn 07 failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 0 |
| 15 | SC Paderborn 07 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Borussia Mönchengladbach
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 64% today
SC Paderborn 07
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 39% today
From our Bundesliga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Paderborn 07
Borussia Mönchengladbach and SC Paderborn 07 have met 6 times in the records we hold, Borussia Mönchengladbach has won 5 of them to SC Paderborn 07's 1.
The record
SC Paderborn 07 won the last one 3–1 on 17 Jul 2021.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | 5 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 4 |
| SC Paderborn 07 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 12 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 16 goals, an average of 2.67 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 17 Jul 2021
Friendlies ClubsSC Paderborn 07 3–1 Borussia Mönchengladbach - 22 Aug 2020
Friendlies ClubsBorussia Mönchengladbach 2–0 SC Paderborn 07 - 22 Aug 2020
Friendlies ClubsSC Paderborn 07 0–2 Borussia Mönchengladbach - 20 Jun 2020
BundesligaSC Paderborn 07 1–3 Borussia Mönchengladbach - 18 Dec 2019
BundesligaBorussia Mönchengladbach 2–0 SC Paderborn 07 - 1 Mar 2015
BundesligaBorussia Mönchengladbach 2–0 SC Paderborn 07
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | 0.83 | 1.20 |
| SC Paderborn 07 | 0.65 | 0.93 |
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Borussia Mönchengladbach carry a model rating of 6.67 against 6.7 for SC Paderborn 07. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.42 goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach and 1.21 for SC Paderborn 07. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Borussia Mönchengladbach rate 0.83 in attack and 1.20 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; SC Paderborn 07 rate 0.65 and 0.93.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour SC Paderborn 07, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,938 correct results out of 4,046 settled predictions (48%), with 405 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Borussia Mönchengladbach against 1.21 for SC Paderborn 07. Borussia Mönchengladbach's attack/defence rating is 0.83/1.2 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/0.93 for SC Paderborn 07.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Borussia Mönchengladbach at home · SC Paderborn 07 away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: Borussia Mönchengladbach 5, SC Paderborn 07 6.
SC Paderborn 07 score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); Borussia Mönchengladbach have let in 6 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Borussia Mönchengladbach
- at Hamburger SV6 Nov · Bundesligawin 32%
- vs Borussia Dortmund21 Nov · Bundesligawin 16%
- at Werder Bremen27 Nov · Bundesligawin 27%
SC Paderborn 07
- vs Eintracht Frankfurt7 Nov · Bundesligawin 34%
- at Bayer Leverkusen21 Nov · Bundesligawin 14%
- vs FC Schalke 0428 Nov · Bundesligawin 35%
- at Bayern München5 Dec · Bundesligawin 8%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.