Stoke City
vs
Preston
Championship prediction
Our model says: Stoke City 2–0 Preston
The model makes it 56% Stoke City, 24% draw, 20% Preston — fair odds of 1.79, 4.17 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0.
Expected goals: Stoke City 1.95, Preston 0.95.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Stoke City: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Match centre: line-ups, live score and match stats →
Key facts
- Stoke City are 6th on 19 points from 11 games; Preston are bottom on 4 points from 11 games — Championship.
- Stoke City have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win away to Derby.
- Preston have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat away to Wrexham.
- Last 6 meetings: Preston 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 20 March 2026, ended Preston 3–1 Stoke City.
More Championship predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Stoke City vs Preston
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Stoke City at 56% here. Across 3,865 settled matches (as of 17 October 2026), 927 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.0% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Stoke City vs Preston
Stoke City
- W1-0away to Derby17 October 2026
- L2-3Middlesbrough13 October 2026
- W2-1away to Bolton10 October 2026
- W2-1Sheffield Utd19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Watford12 September 2026
Preston
- L1-4away to Wrexham17 October 2026
- L0-4away to Birmingham13 October 2026
- L0-1Millwall10 October 2026
- D2-2away to QPR19 September 2026
- L0-1Lincoln12 September 2026
What these results say
- Stoke City scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Stoke City won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Stoke City conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Preston did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Preston conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Stoke City | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 16 | +2 | 19 |
| 24 | Preston | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 24 | -15 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Stoke City
Chance to finish in the top four · 9% today
Preston
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 85% today
From our Championship season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Preston vs Stoke City
Preston and Stoke City have met 6 times in the records we hold, Preston has won 2 of them to Stoke City's 1, with 3 drawn.
The record
Preston won the last one 3–1 on 20 Mar 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Preston | 2 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 4 |
| Stoke City | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 7 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 11 goals, an average of 1.83 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 20 Mar 2026
ChampionshipPreston 3–1 Stoke City - 26 Dec 2025
ChampionshipStoke City 0–0 Preston - 5 Apr 2025
ChampionshipPreston 1–1 Stoke City - 26 Nov 2024
ChampionshipStoke City 0–0 Preston - 9 Mar 2024
ChampionshipPreston 1–2 Stoke City - 2 Sep 2023
ChampionshipStoke City 0–2 Preston
How the model rates them now
Attack and defence are multipliers on an average side: above 1.00 in attack means the club scores more than the average team in its competition, and below 1.00 in defence means it concedes fewer. The methodology sets out how they are derived, including where the model is known to be wrong.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| Preston | 0.58 | 1.77 |
| Stoke City | 0.73 | 1.38 |
Leading scorers: Stoke City and Preston
Stoke City
GoalsAssists
- E. Galbraith32
Preston
No player in Championship's leading scorers — 9 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Stoke City carry a model rating of 6.53 against 6.29 for Preston. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.95 goals for Stoke City and 0.95 for Preston. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Stoke City rate 0.73 in attack and 1.38 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Preston rate 0.58 and 1.77.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Stoke City a 1.1% chance of the title and Preston 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,938 correct results out of 4,046 settled predictions (48%), with 405 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Stoke City the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Stoke City against 0.95 for Preston. Stoke City's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.38 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.77 for Preston.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Stoke City at home · Preston away
League matches only, Championship, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Stoke CityPreston
Stoke City are 6th after 11 Championship matches (between 3rd and 23rd so far); Preston are 24th after 11 (between 21st and 24th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored. Points deductions (Southampton −4) count from the first match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Championship matches this season: Stoke City 11, Preston 10.
Preston score most often in the 0–15 minute window (3 goals); Stoke City have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Stoke City
- at Blackburn3 Nov · Championshipwin 31%
- at Portsmouth7 Nov · Championshipwin 31%
- vs Birmingham21 Nov · Championshipwin 34%
- vs Millwall25 Nov · Championshipwin 38%
Preston
- vs Sheffield Utd3 Nov · Championshipwin 28%
- vs Southampton7 Nov · Championshipwin 19%
- at West Ham21 Nov · Championshipwin 12%
- at Cardiff24 Nov · Championshipwin 18%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.