Bologna
vs
Udinese
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Bologna 1–0 Udinese
The model makes it 50% Bologna, 27% draw, 23% Udinese — fair odds of 2.00, 3.70 and 4.35.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Bologna 1.67, Udinese 0.98.
Both teams to score: 51%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
Edge to Bologna: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Bologna's rating is built from 49 Serie A matches and Udinese's from 49, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 870 matches.
Key facts
- Bologna are 8th on 17 points from 11 games; Udinese are bottom on 5 points from 11 games — Serie A.
- Bologna are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Parma.
- Udinese have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Venezia.
- Last 6 meetings: Bologna 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 23 February 2026, ended Bologna 1–0 Udinese.
More Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Bologna vs Udinese
Has the model earned this number?
Bologna at 50%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Bologna vs Udinese
Bologna
Serie A
- W2-1away to Parma7 November 2026
- W2-1Monza31 October 2026
- W4-2away to AC Milan28 October 2026
- W2-0away to Cagliari24 October 2026
- L1-3Inter17 October 2026
Udinese
Serie A
- L1-2away to Venezia6 November 2026
- L2-5AS Roma31 October 2026
- D0-0away to Parma28 October 2026
- L0-2AC Milan25 October 2026
- L0-3Lecce18 October 2026
What these results say
- Bologna scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Bologna won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bologna conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Udinese did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Udinese conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Bologna | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 17 |
| 20 | Udinese | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 25 | -13 | 5 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Udinese
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 55% today
From our Serie A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Bologna vs Udinese
Bologna and Udinese have met 6 times in the records we hold, Bologna has won 2 of them to Udinese's 1, with 3 drawn.
The record
Bologna won the last one 1–0 on 23 Feb 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bologna | 2 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 5 |
| Udinese | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 6 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 11 goals, an average of 1.83 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 23 Feb 2026
Serie ABologna 1–0 Udinese - 22 Nov 2025
Serie AUdinese 0–3 Bologna - 28 Apr 2025
Serie AUdinese 0–0 Bologna - 18 Aug 2024
Serie ABologna 1–1 Udinese - 28 Apr 2024
Serie ABologna 1–1 Udinese - 30 Dec 2023
Serie AUdinese 3–0 Bologna
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Bologna's attack rates 20% above Udinese's, and Bologna concede 23% fewer than Udinese. That gives Bologna the edge at both ends. How the ratings are derived.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bologna the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Bologna against 0.98 for Udinese. Bologna's attack/defence rating is 1.03/0.89 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.86/1.15 for Udinese.
How the model reaches 50% for Bologna to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Bologna to win. Then home advantage adds 2 points, Bologna's ratings add 6 points and Udinese's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 50%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage38%+2
- Bologna's ratings44%+6
- Udinese's ratings50%+6
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Bologna at home · Udinese away
League matches only, Serie A, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
BolognaUdinese
Bologna are 8th after 11 Serie A matches (between 8th and 17th so far); Udinese are 20th after 11 (between 2nd and 20th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Bologna 11, Udinese 11.
Bologna score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Udinese have let in 5 there.
Udinese score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); Bologna have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Bologna
- at Venezia29 Nov · Serie Awin 47%
- vs AS Roma6 Dec · Serie Awin 20%
- at Como13 Dec · Serie Awin 23%
- at Fiorentina20 Dec · Serie Awin 35%
- vs Juventus3 Jan · Serie Awin 30%
Udinese
- vs Fiorentina29 Nov · Serie Awin 29%
- at Juventus6 Dec · Serie Awin 17%
- vs Frosinone13 Dec · Serie Awin 24%
- at Genoa20 Dec · Serie Awin 28%
- vs Atalanta3 Jan · Serie Awin 26%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.