Round of 16 · 22 November 2026, 21:00 UTC

Defensa Y Justicia vs Barracas Central Liga Profesional Argentina prediction

Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello, Gobernador Julio A. Costa

Our model says: Defensa Y Justicia 1–0 Barracas Central

The model makes it 40% Defensa Y Justicia, 32% draw, 28% Barracas Central — fair odds of 2.50, 3.13 and 3.57.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).

Expected goals: Defensa Y Justicia 1.17, Barracas Central 0.90.

Both teams to score: 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 34%, under 2.5: 66%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,919 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Defensa Y Justicia's rating is built from 64 Liga Profesional Argentina matches and Barracas Central's from 67, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,383 matches.

Key facts

  • Defensa Y Justicia are 4th in Liga Profesional Argentina, Clausura - Group A on 28 points from 16 games; Barracas Central are 5th in Liga Profesional Argentina, Clausura - Group B on 26 points from 16 games.
  • Defensa Y Justicia have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Boca Juniors.
  • Barracas Central are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-0 win at home to Racing Club.
  • Last 5 meetings: Defensa Y Justicia 2 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 22 August 2025, ended Barracas Central 1–1 Defensa Y Justicia.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Defensa Y Justicia vs Barracas Central

41%
Both teams to score
34%
Over 2.5 goals
66%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Defensa Y Justicia win Draw Barracas Central win
  1. 1–014%
  2. 1–114%
  3. 0–013%
  4. 0–111%
  5. 2–09%
  6. 2–18%
  7. 1–26%

Scores read Defensa Y Justicia first; the other scorelines share the remaining 26%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Defensa Y Justicia at 40%: of 2,924 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.0% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Defensa Y Justicia vs Barracas Central

Defensa Y Justicia

Liga Profesional Argentina

  • L0-1away to Boca Juniors7 November 2026
  • D1-1Independiente2 November 2026
  • W2-1away to Talleres Cordoba24 October 2026
  • L0-1Instituto Cordoba16 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Union Santa Fe10 October 2026

Barracas Central

Liga Profesional Argentina

  • W2-0Racing Club6 November 2026
  • D2-2away to Belgrano Cordoba1 November 2026
  • W2-1Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto26 October 2026
  • D1-1away to Sarmiento Junin19 October 2026
  • W2-0Huracan10 October 2026

What these results say

  • Defensa Y Justicia conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Defensa Y Justicia had two goals or fewer.
  • Barracas Central went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Barracas Central scored in every one of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Liga Profesional Argentina table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
4Defensa Y Justicia168442115+628
5Barracas Central167541713+426

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Barracas Central vs Defensa Y Justicia

Barracas Central and Defensa Y Justicia have met 5 times in the records we hold, Defensa Y Justicia has won 2 of them to Barracas Central's 1, with 2 drawn.

The record

They drew 1–1 at Barracas Central on 22 Aug 2025.

ClubWDLGFGA
Barracas Central12256
Defensa Y Justicia22165

Between them these 5 meetings produced 11 goals, an average of 2.20 a game.

Every meeting

Every recorded meeting, newest first.

  • 22 Aug 2025
    Liga Profesional Argentina    Barracas Central 1–1 Defensa Y Justicia
  • 15 Feb 2025
    Liga Profesional Argentina    Defensa Y Justicia 1–1 Barracas Central
  • 31 Aug 2024
    Liga Profesional Argentina    Defensa Y Justicia 1–0 Barracas Central
  • 24 Apr 2023
    Liga Profesional Argentina    Barracas Central 0–2 Defensa Y Justicia
  • 18 Aug 2022
    Liga Profesional Argentina    Barracas Central 3–1 Defensa Y Justicia

How the model rates them now

On the current ratings, Defensa Y Justicia's attack rates 10% above Barracas Central's, and Barracas Central concede 11% fewer than Defensa Y Justicia. How the ratings are derived.

ClubAttackDefence
Barracas Central0.781.10
Defensa Y Justicia0.861.23

More head-to-heads on this week’s board →

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Defensa Y Justicia Barracas Central
0.86 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.78
1.23 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.1
1.17 Model expected goals (this match) 0.90

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Defensa Y Justicia the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Defensa Y Justicia against 0.90 for Barracas Central. Defensa Y Justicia's attack/defence rating is 0.86/1.23 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.1 for Barracas Central.

How the model reaches 40% for Defensa Y Justicia to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 35% for Defensa Y Justicia to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Defensa Y Justicia's ratings add 1 point and Barracas Central's ratings take away 1 point, which lands on the published 40%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground35%
  2. Home advantage41%+6
  3. Both sides at this match's level40%−1
  4. Defensa Y Justicia's ratings41%+1
  5. Barracas Central's ratings40%−1

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Defensa Y JusticiaBarracas Central
32Matches32
12W 11D 9LRecord12W 11D 9L
39 1.2 per gameGoals scored32 1.0 per game
36 1.1 per gameGoals conceded28 0.9 per game
9 of 32Clean sheets11 of 32
9 of 32Failed to score11 of 32
3 of 5Penalties scored5 of 5
61 1.9 per gameYellow cards70 2.2 per game
5Red cards0
4-2-3-1 14×Usual shape5-3-2 12×

Defensa Y Justicia at home · Barracas Central away

16Played16
6W 7D 3LRecord5W 8D 3L
19–15Goals for – against15–15
5 of 16Clean sheets5 of 16

League matches only, Liga Profesional Argentina, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Liga Profesional Argentina matches this season: Defensa Y Justicia 32, Barracas Central 32.

Defensa Y Justicia scored 7312566
Barracas Central conceded 366508

Defensa Y Justicia score most often in the 31–45 minute window (12 goals); Barracas Central have let in 6 there.

Barracas Central scored 336397
Defensa Y Justicia conceded 4743512

Barracas Central score most often in the 61–75 minute window (9 goals); Defensa Y Justicia have let in 5 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.