Weekend preview, 3-4 October: Spain the surest call of 80 matches
Our model has a prediction for 80 matches this weekend (3-4 October), across 15 competitions. It is surest about Spain: 67% to beat Czechia, most likely 2-0. 11 matches are within three points either way, games where the draw is a real outcome.
The biggest matches
- Portugal vs Norway (UEFA Nations League, Sunday 18:45 UTC): 40% / 28% / 32%, most likely 2-1.
- Croatia vs England (UEFA Nations League, Saturday 16:00 UTC): 27% / 28% / 45%, most likely 1-2.
- Wales vs Denmark (UEFA Nations League, Sunday 18:45 UTC): 33% / 28% / 39%, most likely 1-2.
- Kosovo vs Austria (UEFA Nations League, Sunday 16:00 UTC): 34% / 29% / 37%, most likely 1-2.
- Greece vs Germany (UEFA Nations League, Sunday 18:45 UTC): 27% / 30% / 43%, most likely 0-1.
The surest calls
- Spain vs Czechia (UEFA Nations League): Spain at 67%, most likely 2-0.
- Belarus vs San Marino (UEFA Nations League): Belarus at 62%, most likely 2-0.
- Castellón vs AD Ceuta FC (Segunda División): Castellón at 61%, most likely 2-0.
- Club Guarani vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo (Division Profesional - Clausura): Club Guarani at 60%, most likely 2-0.
- Rouen vs Bourg-en-bresse 01 (Ligue 3): Rouen at 59%, most likely 2-0.
For scale: calls the model rated at 55% or more have landed 58% of the time, across 633 settled predictions. Sure is not certain.
National-team predictions are anchored on the FIFA World Ranking and not yet calibrated against our own record, so read those as the weakest numbers on this list.
The coin flips
Home and away within three points of each other. The model still names a pick, but the draw is live.
- Kosovo vs Austria (UEFA Nations League): 34% / 29% / 37%.
- Cadiz vs Leganes (Segunda División): 36% / 31% / 33%.
- Sarmiento Junin vs River Plate (Liga Profesional Argentina): 35% / 29% / 36%.
- Newell's Old Boys vs Lanus (Liga Profesional Argentina): 34% / 32% / 34%.
- Talleres Cordoba vs Belgrano Cordoba (Liga Profesional Argentina): 32% / 33% / 35%.
And 6 more, each marked "Tight game" on its match page.
How to read these
The three numbers are the model's chances of a home win, a draw and an away win. Every match has its own page with the full breakdown, and the fixtures page lists the whole weekend. How the probabilities are made is in the methodology; how often they have been right, in the track record. Statistical estimates, not betting advice.