Club Guarani
vs
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
Division Profesional - Clausura prediction
Our model says: Club Guarani 2–0 Club Sp. San Lorenzo
The model makes it 60% Club Guarani, 26% draw, 14% Club Sp. San Lorenzo — fair odds of 1.67, 3.85 and 7.14. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (17%).
Expected goals: Club Guarani 2.02, Club Sp. San Lorenzo 0.47.
Both teams to score: 33%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Club Guarani are 5th on 20 points from 12 games; Club Sp. San Lorenzo are bottom on 2 points from 12 games — Division Profesional - Clausura.
- Club Guarani are unbeaten in their last 5 (3 won), most recently a 1-0 win away to Sportivo Luqueno.
- Club Sp. San Lorenzo have not won in their last 5, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Deportivo Recoleta.
- Last 6 meetings: Club Guarani 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 30 July 2026, ended Club Sp. San Lorenzo 0–1 Club Guarani.
All Paraguayan Primera División Clausura predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Club Guarani vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Club Guarani at 60% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Club Guarani vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo
Club Guarani
- W1-0away to Sportivo Luqueno25 September 2026
- W1-0away to Sportivo Trinidense18 September 2026
- D1-1Cerro Porteno12 September 2026
- W2-0Deportivo Recoleta7 September 2026
- D1-1away to Olimpia2 September 2026
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
- D0-0Deportivo Recoleta28 September 2026
- L0-3Olimpia20 September 2026
- L0-1away to Sportivo Ameliano11 September 2026
- L1-22 de Mayo5 September 2026
- L1-3away to Rubio NU1 September 2026
What these results say
- Club Guarani went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Club Guarani scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Club Guarani had two goals or fewer.
- Club Sp. San Lorenzo did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Club Sp. San Lorenzo conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Club Guarani | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 20 |
| 12 | Club Sp. San Lorenzo | 12 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 3 | 21 | -18 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Club Guarani vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo
- 30 July 2026Club Sp. San Lorenzo 0–1 Club GuaraniDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 10 April 2026Club Sp. San Lorenzo 1–0 Club GuaraniDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 13 February 2026Club Guarani 3–1 Club Sp. San LorenzoDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 16 November 2020Club Guarani 2–1 Club Sp. San LorenzoDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 9 August 2020Club Sp. San Lorenzo 1–1 Club GuaraniDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 17 January 2020Club Guarani 0–0 Club Sp. San LorenzoDivision Profesional - Apertura
Leading scorers: Club Guarani and Club Sp. San Lorenzo
Club Guarani
- S. Zaracho3 goals1 assist
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
No player in Division Profesional - Clausura's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Club Guarani carry a model rating of 6.58 against 6.01 for Club Sp. San Lorenzo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.02 goals for Club Guarani and 0.47 for Club Sp. San Lorenzo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Club Guarani rate 0.64 in attack and 1.12 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Club Sp. San Lorenzo rate 0.35 and 1.94.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Club Guarani a 3.3% chance of the title and Club Sp. San Lorenzo 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Club Guarani the highest probability at 60%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Club Guarani against 0.47 for Club Sp. San Lorenzo. Club Guarani's attack/defence rating is 0.64/1.12 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.35/1.94 for Club Sp. San Lorenzo.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Club Guarani at home · Club Sp. San Lorenzo away
League matches only, Division Profesional - Clausura, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Division Profesional - Clausura matches this season: Club Guarani 12, Club Sp. San Lorenzo 12.
Club Guarani score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Club Sp. San Lorenzo have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Club Guarani
- at Libertad Asuncion14 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 31%
- vs Nacional Asuncion21 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 35%
- at Rubio NU29 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 42%
- vs 2 de Mayo5 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 46%
- at Sportivo Ameliano8 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 35%
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
- vs Sportivo Trinidense14 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 21%
- at Sportivo Luqueno21 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 22%
- vs Cerro Porteno29 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 22%
- vs Libertad Asuncion5 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 22%
- at Nacional Asuncion8 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 11%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.