Newell's Old Boys
vs
Lanus
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
Our model says: Newell's Old Boys 1–2 Lanus
The model makes it 30% Newell's Old Boys, 28% draw, 42% Lanus — fair odds of 3.33, 3.57 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Newell's Old Boys 1.20, Lanus 1.67.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Newell's Old Boys vs Lanus
Every scoreline the model considered
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 2 | |
| 1 | 6 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 1 | |
| 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | ||
| 4 | ||||||
| 5 |
Each cell is one exact result, shaded against the likeliest one; figures below 1% are left blank rather than rounded to zero. Blue cells are Newell's Old Boys wins, grey are draws, red are Lanus wins — the three shaded areas ARE the 1/X/2 split above, which is the sum of the cells in each. The most likely scoreline is simply the darkest cell inside whichever area the model favours.
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Lanus at 42% here. Across 2555 settled matches, 1162 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.4% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Newell's Old Boys vs Lanus
Newell's Old Boys
- D1-1Velez Sarsfield11 September 2026
- D1-1away to Rosario Central6 September 2026
- D0-0away to Estudiantes La Plata31 August 2026
- W2-1Banfield23 August 2026
- W2-0Deportivo Riestra15 August 2026
Lanus
- W3-0away to Deportivo Riestra14 September 2026
- W1-0Defensa Y Justicia6 September 2026
- L0-1away to Boca Juniors29 August 2026
- D1-1Argentinos Juniors25 August 2026
- L1-3Independiente17 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Liga Profesional Argentina table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Newell's Old Boys | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 13 |
| 7 | Lanus | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Newell's Old Boys vs Lanus
- 17 March 2026Lanus 5–0 Newell's Old BoysLiga Profesional Argentina
- 5 October 2024Newell's Old Boys 2–1 LanusLiga Profesional Argentina
- 31 January 2024Lanus 0–2 Newell's Old BoysCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 26 August 2023Newell's Old Boys 1–0 LanusCopa de la Liga Profesional
- 21 May 2023Lanus 1–0 Newell's Old BoysLiga Profesional Argentina
- 17 August 2022Newell's Old Boys 2–0 LanusLiga Profesional Argentina
Leading scorers: Newell's Old Boys and Lanus
Newell's Old Boys
No player in Liga Profesional Argentina's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Lanus
- D. Aquino6 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Newell's Old Boys carry a model rating of 6.57 against 6.89 for Lanus. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.20 goals for Newell's Old Boys and 1.67 for Lanus. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Newell's Old Boys rate 0.75 in attack and 1.31 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lanus rate 1.06 and 0.98.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Newell's Old Boys a 1.2% chance of the title and Lanus 3.4%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1202 correct results out of 2555 settled predictions (47%), with 242 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lanus the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.2 expected goals for Newell's Old Boys against 1.67 for Lanus. Newell's Old Boys's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.31 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.06/0.98 for Lanus.