Radnicki 1923
vs
Radnik Surdulica
Super Liga prediction
Our model says: Radnicki 1923 2–1 Radnik Surdulica
The model makes it 48% Radnicki 1923, 26% draw, 26% Radnik Surdulica — fair odds of 2.08, 3.85 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Radnicki 1923 1.72, Radnik Surdulica 1.13.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Radnicki 1923 are 5th on 17 points from 10 games; Radnik Surdulica are 7th on 14 points from 11 games — Super Liga.
- Radnicki 1923 have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to FK Crvena Zvezda.
- Radnik Surdulica are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to IMT Novi Beograd.
- Last 6 meetings: Radnicki 1923 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 15 February 2026, ended Radnicki 1923 0–0 Radnik Surdulica.
More Serbian SuperLiga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Radnicki 1923 vs Radnik Surdulica
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Radnicki 1923 at 48% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Radnicki 1923 vs Radnik Surdulica
Radnicki 1923
- L0-3FK Crvena Zvezda10 October 2026
- W5-3away to OFK Beograd19 September 2026
- W5-0Mladost Lucani12 September 2026
- D0-0away to Macva5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Radnicki NIS29 August 2026
Radnik Surdulica
- L0-1away to IMT Novi Beograd10 October 2026
- D4-4FK Partizan19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Zemun14 September 2026
- D0-0FK Crvena Zvezda10 September 2026
- W3-1Cukaricki5 September 2026
What these results say
- Radnik Surdulica failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Radnik Surdulica conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Radnicki 1923 | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 | 12 | +5 | 17 |
| 7 | Radnik Surdulica | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Radnicki 1923
Chance to finish in the top four · 47% today
Radnik Surdulica
Chance to finish in the top four · 8% today
From our Super Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Radnicki 1923 vs Radnik Surdulica
- 15 February 2026Radnicki 1923 0–0 Radnik SurdulicaSuper Liga
- 13 September 2025Radnik Surdulica 2–3 Radnicki 1923Super Liga
- 8 March 2024Radnik Surdulica 0–1 Radnicki 1923Super Liga
- 20 December 2023Radnicki 1923 1–0 Radnik SurdulicaSuper Liga
- 5 November 2022Radnicki 1923 1–0 Radnik SurdulicaSuper Liga
- 23 July 2022Radnik Surdulica 0–0 Radnicki 1923Super Liga
Leading scorers: Radnicki 1923 and Radnik Surdulica
Radnicki 1923
GoalsAssists
- M. Cissé41
- U. Sremčević40
- D. Buchta31
Radnik Surdulica
GoalsAssists
- V. Bogdanović50
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Radnicki 1923 carry a model rating of 6.35 against 6.24 for Radnik Surdulica. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.72 goals for Radnicki 1923 and 1.13 for Radnik Surdulica. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Radnicki 1923 rate 0.59 in attack and 1.61 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Radnik Surdulica rate 0.54 and 1.83.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Radnicki 1923 a 0.1% chance of the title and Radnik Surdulica 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Radnicki 1923 the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Radnicki 1923 against 1.13 for Radnik Surdulica. Radnicki 1923's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.61 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.83 for Radnik Surdulica.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Radnicki 1923 at home · Radnik Surdulica away
League matches only, Super Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super Liga matches this season: Radnicki 1923 10, Radnik Surdulica 11.
Radnicki 1923 score most often in the 0–15 minute window (5 goals); Radnik Surdulica have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Radnicki 1923
- vs Novi Pazar1 Nov · Super Ligawin 48%
- at Železničar Pančevo7 Nov · Super Ligawin 26%
- vs Cukaricki21 Nov · Super Ligawin 50%
Radnik Surdulica
- at Mladost Lucani1 Nov · Super Ligawin 35%
- vs OFK Beograd7 Nov · Super Ligawin 44%
- at FK Crvena Zvezda21 Nov · Super Ligawin 10%
- vs Vojvodina28 Nov · Super Ligawin 25%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.