Slovan Liberec
vs
Baník Ostrava
Czech Liga prediction
Our model says: Slovan Liberec 1–0 Baník Ostrava
The model makes it 51% Slovan Liberec, 29% draw, 20% Baník Ostrava — fair odds of 1.96, 3.45 and 5.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (16%).
Expected goals: Slovan Liberec 1.50, Baník Ostrava 0.73.
Both teams to score: 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 38%, under 2.5: 62%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to Slovan Liberec: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Slovan Liberec are 2nd on 20 points from 10 games; Baník Ostrava are 12th on 10 points from 10 games — Czech Liga.
- Slovan Liberec have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Slovácko.
- Baník Ostrava have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Bohemians 1905.
- Last 6 meetings: Slovan Liberec 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 15 February 2026, ended Slovan Liberec 1–0 Baník Ostrava.
More Czech Liga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Slovan Liberec vs Baník Ostrava
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Slovan Liberec at 51% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Slovan Liberec vs Baník Ostrava
Slovan Liberec
- L0-2Slovácko11 October 2026
- D0-0away to Artis19 September 2026
- W3-0Mlada Boleslav12 September 2026
- W2-1away to FK Jablonec6 September 2026
- W2-0Hradec Králové30 August 2026
Baník Ostrava
- L0-1away to Bohemians 190510 October 2026
- D2-2away to Slovácko19 September 2026
- L1-2Pardubice13 September 2026
- L0-3away to FK Jablonec9 September 2026
- L0-4away to Mlada Boleslav6 September 2026
What these results say
- Baník Ostrava did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Baník Ostrava conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Baník Ostrava had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Czech Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Slovan Liberec | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 20 |
| 12 | Baník Ostrava | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 18 | -11 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Slovan Liberec
Chance to finish in the top four · 43% today
Baník Ostrava
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 46% today
From our Czech Liga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Slovan Liberec vs Baník Ostrava
- 15 February 2026Slovan Liberec 1–0 Baník OstravaCzech Liga
- 13 September 2025Baník Ostrava 0–2 Slovan LiberecCzech Liga
- 1 February 2025Slovan Liberec 0–1 Baník OstravaCzech Liga
- 25 August 2024Baník Ostrava 2–0 Slovan LiberecCzech Liga
- 28 April 2024Baník Ostrava 2–2 Slovan LiberecCzech Liga
- 23 July 2023Slovan Liberec 3–1 Baník OstravaCzech Liga
Leading scorers: Slovan Liberec and Baník Ostrava
Slovan Liberec
GoalsAssists
- P. Dulay31
- L. Mašek30
Baník Ostrava
No player in Czech Liga's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Slovan Liberec carry a model rating of 6.76 against 6.46 for Baník Ostrava. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.50 goals for Slovan Liberec and 0.73 for Baník Ostrava. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Slovan Liberec rate 0.71 in attack and 0.89 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Baník Ostrava rate 0.64 and 1.39.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Slovan Liberec a 0.3% chance of the title and Baník Ostrava 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Slovan Liberec the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Slovan Liberec against 0.73 for Baník Ostrava. Slovan Liberec's attack/defence rating is 0.71/0.89 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.39 for Baník Ostrava.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Slovan Liberec at home · Baník Ostrava away
League matches only, Czech Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Slovan LiberecBaník Ostrava
Slovan Liberec are 2nd after 10 Czech Liga matches (between 1st and 5th so far); Baník Ostrava are 12th after 10 (between 3rd and 12th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Czech Liga matches this season: Slovan Liberec 10, Baník Ostrava 10.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Slovan Liberec
- at Pardubice31 Oct · Czech Ligawin 39%
- vs Bohemians 19057 Nov · Czech Ligawin 44%
- at Sparta Praha22 Nov · Czech Ligawin 22%
- at Teplice28 Nov · Czech Ligawin 33%
Baník Ostrava
- vs Plzen1 Nov · Czech Ligawin 21%
- at Zbrojovka Brno7 Nov · Czech Ligawin 25%
- vs Teplice21 Nov · Czech Ligawin 29%
- at Slavia Praha29 Nov · Czech Ligawin 8%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.