Widzew Łódź
vs
Gornik Zabrze
Ekstraklasa prediction
Our model says: Widzew Łódź 0–1 Gornik Zabrze
The model makes it 30% Widzew Łódź, 30% draw, 40% Gornik Zabrze — fair odds of 3.33, 3.33 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Widzew Łódź 1.07, Gornik Zabrze 1.30.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Gornik Zabrze: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Widzew Łódź are 13th on 9 points from 10 games; Gornik Zabrze are top on 25 points from 10 games — Ekstraklasa.
- Widzew Łódź have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Piast Gliwice.
- Gornik Zabrze are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 3-1 win away to Jagiellonia.
- Last 6 meetings: Gornik Zabrze 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 22 March 2026, ended Widzew Łódź 0–0 Gornik Zabrze.
More Ekstraklasa predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Widzew Łódź vs Gornik Zabrze
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Gornik Zabrze at 40% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Widzew Łódź vs Gornik Zabrze
Widzew Łódź
- L1-2away to Piast Gliwice11 October 2026
- D2-2Wieczysta Kraków18 September 2026
- D1-1away to Legia Warszawa13 September 2026
- D0-0Radomiak Radom5 September 2026
- L2-3Lech Poznan30 August 2026
Gornik Zabrze
- W3-1away to Jagiellonia10 October 2026
- D0-0away to Motor Lublin19 September 2026
- W2-0away to Korona Kielce15 September 2026
- W2-1Lech Poznan12 September 2026
- W1-0away to Cracovia Krakow6 September 2026
What these results say
- Widzew Łódź did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Widzew Łódź scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Widzew Łódź conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Gornik Zabrze went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Gornik Zabrze won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Gornik Zabrze scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Widzew Łódź | 10 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 9 |
| 1 | Gornik Zabrze | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 9 | +10 | 25 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Widzew Łódź
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 15% today
Gornik Zabrze
Chance to win the league · 24% today
From our Ekstraklasa season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Widzew Łódź vs Gornik Zabrze
- 22 March 2026Widzew Łódź 0–0 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
- 21 September 2025Gornik Zabrze 3–2 Widzew ŁódźEkstraklasa
- 27 April 2025Gornik Zabrze 0–0 Widzew ŁódźEkstraklasa
- 27 October 2024Widzew Łódź 0–2 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
- 25 February 2024Widzew Łódź 3–1 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
- 18 August 2023Gornik Zabrze 1–1 Widzew ŁódźEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Widzew Łódź and Gornik Zabrze
Widzew Łódź
No player in Ekstraklasa's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.
Gornik Zabrze
GoalsAssists
- K. UrbaÅski41
- Peter40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Widzew Łódź carry a model rating of 6.61 against 6.84 for Gornik Zabrze. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.07 goals for Widzew Łódź and 1.30 for Gornik Zabrze. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Widzew Łódź rate 0.70 in attack and 1.14 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Gornik Zabrze rate 0.89 and 0.92.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Widzew Łódź a 0% chance of the title and Gornik Zabrze 23.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Gornik Zabrze the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Widzew Łódź against 1.30 for Gornik Zabrze. Widzew Łódź's attack/defence rating is 0.7/1.14 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.89/0.92 for Gornik Zabrze.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Widzew Łódź at home · Gornik Zabrze away
League matches only, Ekstraklasa, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Widzew ŁódźGornik Zabrze
Widzew Łódź are 13th after 10 Ekstraklasa matches (between 7th and 13th so far); Gornik Zabrze are 1st after 10 (between 1st and 2nd). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ekstraklasa matches this season: Widzew Łódź 10, Gornik Zabrze 10.
Gornik Zabrze score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Widzew Łódź have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Widzew Łódź
- at GKS Katowice31 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 22%
- vs Pogon Szczecin7 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 34%
- at Raków Częstochowa21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 31%
- vs Zaglebie Lubin28 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 41%
Gornik Zabrze
- at Piast Gliwice27 Oct · Cupwin 38%
- vs Legia Warszawa31 Oct · Ekstraklasawin 41%
- vs Wieczysta Kraków7 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 58%
- at Zaglebie Lubin21 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 39%
- vs Wisla Plock28 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 60%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.