Werder Bremen
vs
1899 Hoffenheim
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: Werder Bremen 2–1 1899 Hoffenheim
The model makes it 42% Werder Bremen, 24% draw, 34% 1899 Hoffenheim — fair odds of 2.38, 4.17 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Werder Bremen 1.98, 1899 Hoffenheim 1.72.
Both teams to score: 71%. Over 2.5 goals: 71%, under 2.5: 29%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Werder Bremen are 8th on 9 points from 6 games; 1899 Hoffenheim are 17th on 3 points from 5 games — Bundesliga.
- Werder Bremen are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 2-2 draw at home to SC Paderborn 07.
- 1899 Hoffenheim have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat at home to Hamburger SV.
- Last 6 meetings: 1899 Hoffenheim 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 9 May 2026, ended 1899 Hoffenheim 1–0 Werder Bremen.
More Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Werder Bremen vs 1899 Hoffenheim
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Werder Bremen at 42% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Werder Bremen vs 1899 Hoffenheim
Werder Bremen
- D2-2SC Paderborn 0717 October 2026
- D2-2away to Borussia Dortmund9 October 2026
- W3-2FC Augsburg19 September 2026
- D1-1away to 1. FC Köln12 September 2026
- W3-1RB Leipzig5 September 2026
1899 Hoffenheim
- L2-3Hamburger SV10 October 2026
- L1-3away to SC Paderborn 0720 September 2026
- W2-1VfB Stuttgart12 September 2026
- L2-3Borussia Dortmund5 September 2026
- L2-3away to 1. FC Köln29 August 2026
What these results say
- Werder Bremen went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Werder Bremen scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Werder Bremen conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 1899 Hoffenheim scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 1899 Hoffenheim conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for 1899 Hoffenheim had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Werder Bremen | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 9 |
| 17 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Werder Bremen
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 11% today
1899 Hoffenheim
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 28% today
From our Bundesliga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Werder Bremen vs 1899 Hoffenheim
- 9 May 20261899 Hoffenheim 1–0 Werder BremenBundesliga
- 27 January 2026Werder Bremen 0–2 1899 HoffenheimBundesliga
- 16 February 2025Werder Bremen 1–3 1899 HoffenheimBundesliga
- 29 September 20241899 Hoffenheim 3–4 Werder BremenBundesliga
- 3 March 20241899 Hoffenheim 2–1 Werder BremenBundesliga
- 7 October 2023Werder Bremen 2–3 1899 HoffenheimBundesliga
Leading scorers: Werder Bremen and 1899 Hoffenheim
Werder Bremen
GoalsAssists
- N. Füllkrug40
- M. Grüll24
1899 Hoffenheim
GoalsAssists
- A. Daghim22
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Werder Bremen carry a model rating of 6.76 against 6.79 for 1899 Hoffenheim. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.98 goals for Werder Bremen and 1.72 for 1899 Hoffenheim. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Werder Bremen rate 0.89 in attack and 1.06 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; 1899 Hoffenheim rate 1.05 and 1.21.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Werder Bremen the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Werder Bremen against 1.72 for 1899 Hoffenheim. Werder Bremen's attack/defence rating is 0.89/1.06 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.05/1.21 for 1899 Hoffenheim.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Werder Bremen at home · 1899 Hoffenheim away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: Werder Bremen 5, 1899 Hoffenheim 5.
Werder Bremen score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); 1899 Hoffenheim have let in 2 there.
1899 Hoffenheim score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Werder Bremen have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Werder Bremen
- at VfB Stuttgart7 Nov · Bundesligawin 23%
- vs Hamburger SV22 Nov · Bundesligawin 46%
- vs Borussia Mönchengladbach27 Nov · Bundesligawin 48%
- at Eintracht Frankfurt5 Dec · Bundesligawin 30%
1899 Hoffenheim
- at Crystal Palace5 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 28%
- vs FC Schalke 048 Nov · Bundesligawin 44%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.