VPS
vs
Inter Turku
Veikkausliiga prediction
Our model says: VPS 0–1 Inter Turku
The model makes it 22% VPS, 28% draw, 50% Inter Turku — fair odds of 4.55, 3.57 and 2.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1 (14%).
Expected goals: VPS 0.82, Inter Turku 1.53.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Inter Turku are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- VPS are 5th on 39 points from 27 games; Inter Turku are top on 52 points from 27 games — Veikkausliiga.
- VPS have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Gnistan.
- Inter Turku are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to KuPS.
- Last 6 meetings: Inter Turku 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 14 September 2026, ended Inter Turku 1–0 VPS.
More Veikkausliiga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: VPS vs Inter Turku
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Inter Turku at 50% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into VPS vs Inter Turku
VPS
- W1-0Gnistan12 October 2026
- L0-6away to HJK Helsinki8 October 2026
- L0-2KuPS19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Inter Turku14 September 2026
- W1-0AC Oulu8 September 2026
Inter Turku
- W1-0KuPS11 October 2026
- D0-0away to Gnistan7 October 2026
- W1-0away to AC Oulu18 September 2026
- W1-0VPS14 September 2026
- L1-2away to HJK Helsinki9 September 2026
What these results say
- 4 of these 5 matches for VPS had two goals or fewer.
- Inter Turku scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Inter Turku kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Inter Turku had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Veikkausliiga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | VPS | 27 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 31 | 31 | 0 | 39 |
| 1 | Inter Turku | 27 | 14 | 10 | 3 | 33 | 18 | +15 | 52 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Inter Turku
Chance to finish top of the Championship Group · 75% today
From our Veikkausliiga season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: VPS vs Inter Turku
- 14 September 2026Inter Turku 1–0 VPSVeikkausliiga
- 2 August 2026VPS 0–1 Inter TurkuVeikkausliiga
- 30 June 2026VPS 2–3 Inter TurkuSuomen Cup
- 4 April 2026Inter Turku 0–0 VPSVeikkausliiga
- 31 August 2025Inter Turku 2–1 VPSVeikkausliiga
- 19 April 2025VPS 0–2 Inter TurkuVeikkausliiga
Leading scorers: VPS and Inter Turku
VPS
GoalsAssists
- L. Smyth50
Inter Turku
GoalsAssists
- H. Sjögrell62
- C. Jephta30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
VPS carry a model rating of 6.12 against 6.54 for Inter Turku. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.82 goals for VPS and 1.53 for Inter Turku. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
VPS rate 0.45 in attack and 1.95 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Inter Turku rate 0.56 and 1.10.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives VPS a 0% chance of the title and Inter Turku 75.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Inter Turku the highest probability at 50%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.82 expected goals for VPS against 1.53 for Inter Turku. VPS's attack/defence rating is 0.45/1.95 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.56/1.1 for Inter Turku.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
VPS at home · Inter Turku away
League matches only, Veikkausliiga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Veikkausliiga matches this season: VPS 27, Inter Turku 27.
VPS score most often in the 31–45 minute window (8 goals); Inter Turku have let in 4 there.
Inter Turku score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); VPS have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
VPS
- at AC Oulu28 Oct · Veikkausliigawin 34%
- vs HJK Helsinki2 Nov · Veikkausliigawin 28%
- at Gnistan8 Nov · Veikkausliigawin 27%
Inter Turku
- vs HJK Helsinki29 Oct · Veikkausliigawin 49%
- vs Gnistan2 Nov · Veikkausliigawin 55%
- at KuPS8 Nov · Veikkausliigawin 37%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.