Villarreal
vs
Napoli
UEFA Champions League prediction
Our model says: Villarreal 2–1 Napoli
The model makes it 40% Villarreal, 26% draw, 34% Napoli — fair odds of 2.50, 3.85 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Villarreal 1.94, Napoli 1.67.
Both teams to score: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Villarreal are 21st on 0 points from 1 game; Napoli are 27th on 0 points from 1 game — UEFA Champions League.
- Villarreal have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Levante.
- Napoli have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Fiorentina.
- Last 5 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 1 draw; the most recent, 17 December 2022, ended Napoli 2–3 Villarreal.
All Champions League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Villarreal vs Napoli
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Villarreal at 40% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Villarreal vs Napoli
Villarreal
- L2-3away to Borussia Dortmund8 September 2026
Napoli
- L0-1Arsenal9 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | Villarreal | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
| 27 | Napoli | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Villarreal vs Napoli
- 17 December 2022Napoli 2–3 VillarrealFriendlies Clubs
- 25 February 2016Napoli 1–1 VillarrealUEFA Europa League
- 18 February 2016Villarreal 1–0 NapoliUEFA Europa League
- 7 December 2011Villarreal 0–2 NapoliUEFA Champions League
- 27 September 2011Napoli 2–0 VillarrealUEFA Champions League
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Villarreal carry a model rating of 7.03 against 7.11 for Napoli. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.94 goals for Villarreal and 1.67 for Napoli. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Villarreal rate 1.36 in attack and 0.97 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Napoli rate 1.25 and 0.74.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Villarreal the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Villarreal against 1.67 for Napoli. Villarreal's attack/defence rating is 1.36/0.97 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.25/0.74 for Napoli.
Season stats
Villarreal at home · Napoli away
League matches only, this season — Villarreal in the La Liga, Napoli in the Serie A. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: Villarreal 7 in the La Liga, Napoli 5 in the Serie A.
Villarreal score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); Napoli have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Villarreal
- vs Elche17 Oct · La Ligawin 54%
- at Liverpool20 Oct · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 27%
- at Valencia25 Oct · La Ligawin 42%
- vs Espanyol1 Nov · La Ligawin 53%
Napoli
- at Venezia17 Oct · Serie Awin 57%
- vs Bodo/Glimt20 Oct · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 49%
- vs AS Roma24 Oct · Serie Awin 29%
- at Monza28 Oct · Serie Awin 50%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.