RB Leipzig
vs
PSV Eindhoven
UEFA Champions League prediction
Our model says: RB Leipzig 2–1 PSV Eindhoven
The model makes it 43% RB Leipzig, 25% draw, 32% PSV Eindhoven — fair odds of 2.33, 4.00 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: RB Leipzig 2.23, PSV Eindhoven 1.74.
Both teams to score: 74%. Over 2.5 goals: 76%, under 2.5: 24%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- RB Leipzig are 32nd on 0 points from 1 game; PSV Eindhoven are 19th on 1 point from 1 game — UEFA Champions League.
- RB Leipzig have won 2 of their last 4, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Bayer Leverkusen.
- PSV Eindhoven have won 4 of their last 5, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Twente.
All Champions League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: RB Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven
Has the model earned this number?
It puts RB Leipzig at 43% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into RB Leipzig vs PSV Eindhoven
RB Leipzig
- L1-4away to Como10 September 2026
PSV Eindhoven
- D1-1Shakhtar Donetsk10 September 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
UEFA Champions League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | RB Leipzig | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 |
| 19 | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
RB Leipzig carry a model rating of 7.03 against 7.09 for PSV Eindhoven. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.23 goals for RB Leipzig and 1.74 for PSV Eindhoven. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
RB Leipzig rate 1.22 in attack and 0.85 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; PSV Eindhoven rate 1.48 and 0.95.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour PSV Eindhoven, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives RB Leipzig the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.23 expected goals for RB Leipzig against 1.74 for PSV Eindhoven. RB Leipzig's attack/defence rating is 1.22/0.85 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.48/0.95 for PSV Eindhoven.
Season stats
RB Leipzig at home · PSV Eindhoven away
League matches only, this season — RB Leipzig in the Bundesliga, PSV Eindhoven in the Eredivisie. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All league matches this season: RB Leipzig 4 in the Bundesliga, PSV Eindhoven 7 in the Eredivisie.
PSV Eindhoven score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); RB Leipzig have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
RB Leipzig
- at Bayern München17 Oct · Bundesligawin 21%
- at Real Madrid21 Oct · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 21%
- vs SV Elversberg24 Oct · Bundesligawin 47%
- at FC Schalke 0431 Oct · Bundesligawin 41%
PSV Eindhoven
- at ADO Den Haag17 Oct · Eredivisiewin 62%
- at FC Porto20 Oct · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 21%
- vs Feyenoord25 Oct · Eredivisiewin 44%
- vs Willem II31 Oct · Eredivisiewin 78%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.