Wuhan Three Towns
vs
Shanghai Shenhua
Super League prediction
Our model says: Wuhan Three Towns 1–2 Shanghai Shenhua
The model makes it 37% Wuhan Three Towns, 25% draw, 38% Shanghai Shenhua — fair odds of 2.70, 4.00 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Wuhan Three Towns 2.06, Shanghai Shenhua 2.07.
Both teams to score: 77%. Over 2.5 goals: 78%, under 2.5: 22%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Wuhan Three Towns and Shanghai Shenhua are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Key facts
- Wuhan Three Towns are 15th on 21 points from 26 games; Shanghai Shenhua are 8th on 31 points from 26 games — Super League.
- Wuhan Three Towns are without a win in 3, most recently a 1-4 defeat away to Hangzhou Greentown.
- Shanghai Shenhua have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 3-1 win away to Chongqing Tongliang Long.
- Last 6 meetings: Shanghai Shenhua 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 20 May 2026, ended Shanghai Shenhua 2–2 Wuhan Three Towns.
All Chinese Super League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Wuhan Three Towns vs Shanghai Shenhua
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Shanghai Shenhua at 38% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 2,372 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.1% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Wuhan Three Towns vs Shanghai Shenhua
Wuhan Three Towns
- L1-4away to Hangzhou Greentown18 September 2026
- D1-1Henan Jianye12 September 2026
- D2-2Qingdao Youth Island5 September 2026
- W5-1away to Qingdao Jonoon29 August 2026
- D0-0Tianjin Teda22 August 2026
Shanghai Shenhua
- W3-1away to Chongqing Tongliang Long6 September 2026
- L2-3Shandong Luneng28 August 2026
- W5-4away to Chengdu Better City22 August 2026
- L0-3Beijing Guoan18 August 2026
- W4-1Henan Jianye15 August 2026
What these results say
- Wuhan Three Towns failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Wuhan Three Towns scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Wuhan Three Towns conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Shanghai Shenhua conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Shanghai Shenhua had three goals or more.
- Shanghai Shenhua scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Wuhan Three Towns | 26 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 39 | 46 | -7 | 21 |
| 8 | Shanghai Shenhua | 26 | 12 | 5 | 9 | 52 | 46 | +6 | 31 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Wuhan Three Towns vs Shanghai Shenhua
- 20 May 2026Shanghai Shenhua 2–2 Wuhan Three TownsSuper League
- 31 August 2025Wuhan Three Towns 1–0 Shanghai ShenhuaSuper League
- 19 April 2025Shanghai Shenhua 2–0 Wuhan Three TownsSuper League
- 29 July 2024Wuhan Three Towns 0–2 Shanghai ShenhuaSuper League
- 9 April 2024Shanghai Shenhua 4–1 Wuhan Three TownsSuper League
- 13 August 2023Wuhan Three Towns 1–2 Shanghai ShenhuaSuper League
Leading scorers: Wuhan Three Towns and Shanghai Shenhua
Wuhan Three Towns
- J. Cádiz18 goals6 assists
Shanghai Shenhua
- Rafael Ratão15 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Wuhan Three Towns carry a model rating of 6.19 against 6.35 for Shanghai Shenhua. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.06 goals for Wuhan Three Towns and 2.07 for Shanghai Shenhua. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Wuhan Three Towns rate 0.54 in attack and 2.04 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Shanghai Shenhua rate 0.71 and 2.01.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Shanghai Shenhua the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Wuhan Three Towns against 2.07 for Shanghai Shenhua. Wuhan Three Towns's attack/defence rating is 0.54/2.04 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.71/2.01 for Shanghai Shenhua.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Wuhan Three Towns at home · Shanghai Shenhua away
League matches only, Super League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super League matches this season: Wuhan Three Towns 26, Shanghai Shenhua 26.
Wuhan Three Towns score most often in the 31–45 minute window (9 goals); Shanghai Shenhua have let in 8 there.
Shanghai Shenhua score most often in the 61–75 minute window (12 goals); Wuhan Three Towns have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Wuhan Three Towns
- vs Shandong Luneng24 Oct · Super Leaguewin 37%
- at Yunnan Yukun8 Nov · Super Leaguewin 27%
Shanghai Shenhua
- at Sichuan Jiuniu24 Oct · Super Leaguewin 38%
- vs Qingdao Youth Island8 Nov · Super Leaguewin 44%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.