Beijing Guoan
vs
Qingdao Youth Island
Super League prediction
Our model says: Beijing Guoan 1–0 Qingdao Youth Island
The model makes it 47% Beijing Guoan, 28% draw, 25% Qingdao Youth Island — fair odds of 2.13, 3.57 and 4.00. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Beijing Guoan 1.83, Qingdao Youth Island 1.00.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published
Key facts
- Beijing Guoan are 3rd on 38 points from 26 games; Qingdao Youth Island are 5th on 38 points from 26 games — Super League.
- Beijing Guoan are unbeaten in their last 5 (2 won), most recently a 0-0 draw away to SHANGHAI SIPG.
- Qingdao Youth Island are unbeaten in their last 5 (1 won), most recently a 2-2 draw away to Wuhan Three Towns.
- Last 6 meetings: Beijing Guoan 3 wins to 0, 3 draws; the most recent, 19 May 2026, ended Qingdao Youth Island 1–1 Beijing Guoan.
All Chinese Super League predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Beijing Guoan at 47% here. Across 3,018 settled matches (as of 4 October 2026), 1,401 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island
Beijing Guoan
- D0-0away to SHANGHAI SIPG5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Dalian Zhixing28 August 2026
- D3-3Yunnan Yukun22 August 2026
- W3-0away to Shanghai Shenhua18 August 2026
- W4-2away to Tianjin Teda15 August 2026
Qingdao Youth Island
- D2-2away to Wuhan Three Towns5 September 2026
- D1-1away to Tianjin Teda29 August 2026
- W2-0Shandong Luneng22 August 2026
- D0-0Chongqing Tongliang Long14 August 2026
- D0-0away to Henan Jianye9 August 2026
What these results say
- Beijing Guoan went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Beijing Guoan scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Qingdao Youth Island went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Qingdao Youth Island failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Qingdao Youth Island had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Super League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Beijing Guoan | 26 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 49 | 33 | +16 | 38 |
| 5 | Qingdao Youth Island | 26 | 8 | 14 | 4 | 31 | 32 | -1 | 38 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Beijing Guoan vs Qingdao Youth Island
- 19 May 2026Qingdao Youth Island 1–1 Beijing GuoanSuper League
- 16 August 2025Qingdao Youth Island 1–3 Beijing GuoanSuper League
- 22 July 2025Qingdao Youth Island 2–2 Beijing GuoanFA Cup
- 17 June 2025Beijing Guoan 1–0 Qingdao Youth IslandSuper League
- 11 August 2024Qingdao Youth Island 2–2 Beijing GuoanSuper League
- 21 April 2024Beijing Guoan 4–1 Qingdao Youth IslandSuper League
Leading scorers: Beijing Guoan and Qingdao Youth Island
Beijing Guoan
- Zhang Yuning12 goals6 assists
- Fábio Abreu9 goals6 assists
Qingdao Youth Island
- Davidson9 goals4 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Beijing Guoan carry a model rating of 6.45 against 6.31 for Qingdao Youth Island. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.83 goals for Beijing Guoan and 1.00 for Qingdao Youth Island. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Beijing Guoan rate 0.68 in attack and 1.52 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Qingdao Youth Island rate 0.46 and 1.42.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,418 correct results out of 3,018 settled predictions (47%), with 294 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Beijing Guoan the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Beijing Guoan against 1.00 for Qingdao Youth Island. Beijing Guoan's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.52 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.46/1.42 for Qingdao Youth Island.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Beijing Guoan at home · Qingdao Youth Island away
League matches only, Super League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Super League matches this season: Beijing Guoan 26, Qingdao Youth Island 26.
Beijing Guoan score most often in the 76–90 minute window (12 goals); Qingdao Youth Island have let in 12 there.
Qingdao Youth Island score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Beijing Guoan have let in 12 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Beijing Guoan
- at Henan Jianye24 Oct · Super Leaguewin 38%
- vs Jeonbuk Motors27 Oct · AFC Champions League Elitewin 38%
- at Port FC3 Nov · AFC Champions League Elitewin 40%
Qingdao Youth Island
- vs Yunnan Yukun24 Oct · Super Leaguewin 43%
- at Shanghai Shenhua8 Nov · Super Leaguewin 29%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.