Viking
vs
Dinamo Zagreb
UEFA Champions League prediction
The model makes it 44% Viking, 27% draw, 29% Dinamo Zagreb — fair odds of 2.27, 3.70 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Viking 1.52, Dinamo Zagreb 1.19.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Viking
- W2-1Sarpsborg 08 FF8 August 2026
- W3-0away to Start1 August 2026
- D1-1away to Aalesund26 July 2026
- W2-1away to Lillestrom22 July 2026
- W2-1Sandefjord18 July 2026
Dinamo Zagreb
- W2-0NK Slaven Belupo31 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Domestic league positions
| # | Team | League | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Viking | Eliteserien | 16 | 13 | 1 | 2 | 39 | 15 | +24 | 40 |
| 4 | Dinamo Zagreb | HNL | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables
Leading scorers
Viking
- P. Christiansen8 goals4 assists
Dinamo Zagreb
- D. Beljo2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Viking carry a model rating of 6.58 against 6.62 for Dinamo Zagreb. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Viking W-W-D-W-W; Dinamo Zagreb W.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.52 goals for Viking and 1.19 for Dinamo Zagreb. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Viking rate 0.75 in attack and 1.29 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dinamo Zagreb rate 0.66 and 1.07.
That points to 51% for over two and a half goals and 55% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 317 correct results out of 659 settled predictions (48%), with 62 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Viking the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Viking against 1.19 for Dinamo Zagreb. Viking's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.29 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.66/1.07 for Dinamo Zagreb.