Vasco da Gama
vs
Corinthians
Serie A prediction
Our model says: Vasco da Gama 1–0 Corinthians
The model makes it 48% Vasco da Gama, 28% draw, 24% Corinthians — fair odds of 2.08, 3.57 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Vasco da Gama 1.59, Corinthians 0.98.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Vasco da Gama are 14th on 35 points from 29 games; Corinthians are 16th on 32 points from 30 games — Serie A.
- Vasco da Gama are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Remo.
- Corinthians have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-4 defeat away to Palmeiras.
- Last 6 meetings: Corinthians 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 26 April 2026, ended Corinthians 1–0 Vasco da Gama.
More Brazilian Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Vasco da Gama vs Corinthians
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Vasco da Gama at 48% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Vasco da Gama vs Corinthians
Vasco da Gama
- D0-0Remo10 October 2026
- W2-1away to Botafogo7 October 2026
- W5-0Coritiba19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Gremio12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Fluminense6 September 2026
Corinthians
- L1-4away to Palmeiras11 October 2026
- L1-2away to Internacional7 October 2026
- L1-3Fluminense20 September 2026
- L1-2away to Flamengo13 September 2026
- L1-2Chapecoense6 September 2026
What these results say
- Corinthians did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Corinthians scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Corinthians conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Vasco da Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 36 | 42 | -6 | 35 |
| 16 | Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | 31 | 38 | -7 | 32 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Vasco da Gama
Chance to finish in the bottom three
Corinthians
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 22% today
From our Serie A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Vasco da Gama vs Corinthians
- 26 April 2026Corinthians 1–0 Vasco da GamaSerie A
- 21 December 2025Vasco da Gama 1–2 CorinthiansCopa Do Brasil
- 18 December 2025Corinthians 0–0 Vasco da GamaCopa Do Brasil
- 24 August 2025Vasco da Gama 2–3 CorinthiansSerie A
- 5 April 2025Corinthians 3–0 Vasco da GamaSerie A
- 24 November 2024Corinthians 3–1 Vasco da GamaSerie A
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Vasco da Gama carry a model rating of 6.69 against 6.62 for Corinthians. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.59 goals for Vasco da Gama and 0.98 for Corinthians. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Vasco da Gama rate 0.86 in attack and 1.18 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Corinthians rate 0.74 and 1.17.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Vasco da Gama the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Vasco da Gama against 0.98 for Corinthians. Vasco da Gama's attack/defence rating is 0.86/1.18 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.17 for Corinthians.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Vasco da Gama at home · Corinthians away
League matches only, Serie A, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: Vasco da Gama 29, Corinthians 30.
Vasco da Gama score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Corinthians have let in 7 there.
Corinthians score most often in the 46–60 minute window (9 goals); Vasco da Gama have let in 9 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Vasco da Gama
- vs Flamengo29 Oct · Serie Awin 27%
- at Atletico Paranaense4 Nov · Serie Awin 21%
Corinthians
- vs Mirassol30 Oct · Serie Awin 40%
- at Sao Paulo5 Nov · Serie Awin 25%
- vs Botafogo18 Nov · Serie Awin 41%
- at Atletico Mineiro22 Nov · Serie Awin 20%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.