USM Alger
vs
MC Oran
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: USM Alger 1–0 MC Oran
The model makes it 42% USM Alger, 29% draw, 29% MC Oran — fair odds of 2.38, 3.45 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: USM Alger 1.34, MC Oran 1.01.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- USM Alger are 3rd on 10 points from 5 games; MC Oran are 2nd on 10 points from 4 games — Ligue 1.
- USM Alger have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to JS Saoura.
- MC Oran are unbeaten in their last 4 games (3 won), most recently a 1-0 win away to US Biskra.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 6 June 2026, ended MC Oran 2–2 USM Alger.
More Ligue 1 (Algeria) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: USM Alger vs MC Oran
Has the model earned this number?
It puts USM Alger at 42% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into USM Alger vs MC Oran
USM Alger
- W1-0JS Saoura13 October 2026
- L0-1away to MB Rouisset8 October 2026
- W3-2away to Olympique Akbou19 September 2026
- W2-0JS El Biar10 September 2026
- D0-0away to Khenchela4 September 2026
MC Oran
- W1-0away to US Biskra13 October 2026
- D0-0ES Setif8 October 2026
- W1-0away to ASO Chlef18 September 2026
- W2-0Témouchent11 September 2026
What these results say
- 4 of these 5 matches for USM Alger had two goals or fewer.
- MC Oran went unbeaten through these 4 matches.
- MC Oran kept a clean sheet in every one of these 4 matches.
- Every one of these 4 matches for MC Oran had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | USM Alger | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 10 |
| 2 | MC Oran | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | +4 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: USM Alger vs MC Oran
- 6 June 2026MC Oran 2–2 USM AlgerLigue 1
- 8 January 2026USM Alger 1–1 MC OranLigue 1
- 20 June 2025MC Oran 4–0 USM AlgerLigue 1
- 26 December 2024USM Alger 3–0 MC OranLigue 1
- 21 May 2024MC Oran 1–0 USM AlgerLigue 1
- 15 January 2024USM Alger 2–0 MC OranLigue 1
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
USM Alger carry a model rating of 6.37 against 6.38 for MC Oran. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.34 goals for USM Alger and 1.01 for MC Oran. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
USM Alger rate 0.58 in attack and 1.53 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; MC Oran rate 0.55 and 1.42.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour MC Oran, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives USM Alger the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.34 expected goals for USM Alger against 1.01 for MC Oran. USM Alger's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.53 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.42 for MC Oran.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
USM Alger at home · MC Oran away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: USM Alger 5, MC Oran 4.
USM Alger score most often in the 16–30 minute window (2 goals); MC Oran have let in 0 there.
MC Oran score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); USM Alger have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
USM Alger
- vs CR Belouizdad29 Oct · Ligue 1win 36%
- at JS Kabylie31 Oct · Ligue 1win 28%
- vs MC Alger7 Nov · Ligue 1win 36%
MC Oran
- vs JS Saoura31 Oct · Ligue 1win 45%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.