AS Marsa
vs
ES Metlaoui
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: AS Marsa 1–0 ES Metlaoui
The model makes it 45% AS Marsa, 29% draw, 26% ES Metlaoui — fair odds of 2.22, 3.45 and 3.85. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: AS Marsa 1.46, ES Metlaoui 0.99.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- AS Marsa are 11th on 5 points from 5 games; ES Metlaoui are 14th on 3 points from 5 games — Ligue 1.
- AS Marsa have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Jeunesse Sportive Omrane.
- ES Metlaoui have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Stade Tunisien.
- Last 6 meetings: ES Metlaoui 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 13 April 2026, ended ES Metlaoui 1–0 AS Marsa.
More Ligue 1 (Tunisia) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: AS Marsa vs ES Metlaoui
Has the model earned this number?
It puts AS Marsa at 45% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into AS Marsa vs ES Metlaoui
AS Marsa
- D0-0away to Jeunesse Sportive Omrane11 October 2026
- W1-0ES Sahel12 September 2026
- L1-2away to ES Tunis6 September 2026
- D0-0Progrès Sakiet Eddaïer29 August 2026
- L0-1away to CA Bizertin23 August 2026
ES Metlaoui
- L1-2Stade Tunisien11 October 2026
- L0-1away to Jeunesse Sportive Omrane13 September 2026
- W1-0ES Hammam-Sousse6 September 2026
- L1-2away to ES Sahel30 August 2026
- L0-1Club Africain23 August 2026
What these results say
- AS Marsa failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for AS Marsa had two goals or fewer.
- ES Metlaoui failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- ES Metlaoui conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | AS Marsa | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 5 |
| 14 | ES Metlaoui | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 3 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: AS Marsa vs ES Metlaoui
- 13 April 2026ES Metlaoui 1–0 AS MarsaLigue 1
- 19 October 2025AS Marsa 0–1 ES MetlaouiLigue 1
- 12 May 2024AS Marsa 1–0 ES MetlaouiLigue 1
- 18 February 2024ES Metlaoui 3–1 AS MarsaLigue 1
- 3 January 2024ES Metlaoui 0–1 AS MarsaLigue 1
- 22 October 2023AS Marsa 1–1 ES MetlaouiLigue 1
Leading scorers: AS Marsa and ES Metlaoui
AS Marsa
No player in Ligue 1's leading scorers — 2 league goals as a side.
ES Metlaoui
GoalsAssists
- Mohamed Bouzaabya10
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
AS Marsa carry a model rating of 6.22 against 6.17 for ES Metlaoui. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.46 goals for AS Marsa and 0.99 for ES Metlaoui. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
AS Marsa rate 0.49 in attack and 1.75 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; ES Metlaoui rate 0.47 and 1.83.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AS Marsa the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.46 expected goals for AS Marsa against 0.99 for ES Metlaoui. AS Marsa's attack/defence rating is 0.49/1.75 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/1.83 for ES Metlaoui.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
AS Marsa at home · ES Metlaoui away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: AS Marsa 5, ES Metlaoui 5.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
AS Marsa
- vs CS Hammam-Lif24 Oct · Ligue 1win 42%
- at Olympique Béja21 Nov · Ligue 1win 33%
- vs CS Sfaxien28 Nov · Ligue 1win 24%
- at US Monastirienne5 Dec · Ligue 1win 21%
- vs Club Africain12 Dec · Ligue 1win 25%
ES Metlaoui
- vs ES Zarzis24 Oct · Ligue 1win 35%
- at CS Hammam-Lif21 Nov · Ligue 1win 27%
- vs US Ben Guerdane28 Nov · Ligue 1win 34%
- at Olympique Béja5 Dec · Ligue 1win 30%
- vs CA Bizertin12 Dec · Ligue 1win 41%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.