MB Rouisset
vs
JS Saoura
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: MB Rouisset 1–0 JS Saoura
The model makes it 42% MB Rouisset, 31% draw, 27% JS Saoura — fair odds of 2.38, 3.23 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: MB Rouisset 1.26, JS Saoura 0.92.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 37%, under 2.5: 63%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- MB Rouisset are 4th on 9 points from 5 games; JS Saoura are 15th on 2 points from 4 games — Ligue 1.
- MB Rouisset have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Témouchent.
- JS Saoura have not won in their last 4 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to USM Alger.
- Last 2 meetings: MB Rouisset 2 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 24 January 2026, ended MB Rouisset 1–0 JS Saoura.
More Ligue 1 (Algeria) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: MB Rouisset vs JS Saoura
Has the model earned this number?
It puts MB Rouisset at 42% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 1,712 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into MB Rouisset vs JS Saoura
MB Rouisset
- W2-0away to Témouchent14 October 2026
- W1-0USM Alger8 October 2026
- L0-2away to MC Alger18 September 2026
- W2-0Olympique Akbou12 September 2026
- L0-1away to JS Kabylie4 September 2026
JS Saoura
- L0-1away to USM Alger13 October 2026
- D0-0Olympique Akbou8 October 2026
- D0-0away to US Biskra22 September 2026
- L0-4away to JS El Biar18 September 2026
What these results say
- Every one of these 5 matches for MB Rouisset had two goals or fewer.
- JS Saoura did not win any of these 4 matches.
- JS Saoura failed to score in every one of these 4 matches.
- 3 of these 4 matches for JS Saoura had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | MB Rouisset | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 9 |
| 15 | JS Saoura | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: MB Rouisset vs JS Saoura
- 24 January 2026MB Rouisset 1–0 JS SaouraLigue 1
- 21 August 2025JS Saoura 1–2 MB RouissetLigue 1
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
MB Rouisset carry a model rating of 6.31 against 6.32 for JS Saoura. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.26 goals for MB Rouisset and 0.92 for JS Saoura. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
MB Rouisset rate 0.53 in attack and 1.56 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; JS Saoura rate 0.49 and 1.46.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives MB Rouisset the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.26 expected goals for MB Rouisset against 0.92 for JS Saoura. MB Rouisset's attack/defence rating is 0.53/1.56 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/1.46 for JS Saoura.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
MB Rouisset at home · JS Saoura away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: MB Rouisset 5, JS Saoura 4.
MB Rouisset score most often in the 46–60 minute window (2 goals); JS Saoura have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
MB Rouisset
- at ES Setif24 Oct · Ligue 1win 27%
- at ASO Chlef24 Oct · Ligue 1win 36%
- vs CR Belouizdad31 Oct · Ligue 1win 33%
- at US Biskra7 Nov · Ligue 1win 42%
JS Saoura
- vs CS Constantine24 Oct · Ligue 1win 45%
- vs Ben Aknoun24 Oct · Ligue 1win 45%
- at MC Oran31 Oct · Ligue 1win 25%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.