30 August 2026, 16:30 UTC

Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht Jupiler Pro League prediction & result

Stade Joseph Marien, Brussels
Full time3 – 0

Final score: Union St. Gilloise 3-0 Anderlecht.

Before kick-off the model made it 45% Union St. Gilloise, 28% draw, 27% Anderlecht — fair odds of 2.22, 3.57 and 3.70. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

The model called the result correctly.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Union St. Gilloise at 45% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Union St. Gilloise99%Draw1%Anderlecht0%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 3 goals. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Massire Sylla
29'
⚽B. Zeneliassist: Guilherme Smith
38'
45+4'
Giulian Biancone
⚽M. Biondicassist: B. Zeneli
45'
56'
🔁J. Nga Kanaout: O. Antman
62'
Marco Kana
🔁L. Patrisout: D. De Roeve
70'
🔁K. Rodriguezout: R. Florucz
70'
70'
🔁L. Augustinssonout: M. N'Diaye
70'
🔁M. Kanaout: M. Winkler
Kevin Mac Allister
78'
79'
🔁D. Sikanout: T. Bentayeb
79'
🔁L. Ambrosout: N. Ojea
🔁A. Zorganeout: R. Schoofs
80'
⚽R. Floruczassist: R. Schoofs
81'
🔁B. Zeneliout: N. Havenaar
87'
🔁M. Biondicout: R. Mofokeng
87'

Match stats — Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht

46%Possession54%
15Shots12
7On target2
4Corners3
1.6xG1.34

Goals against chances

Union St. Gilloise3 from 1.60 xGmore than the chances were worth
Anderlecht0 from 1.34 xGless than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Union St. Gilloise 3-4-3
  • 12H. KoffiG
  • 5K. Mac AllisterD
  • 29M. SyllaD
  • 80O. KricfalusiD
  • 27L. PatrisM
  • 8A. ZorganeM
  • 6K. Van De PerreM
  • 11Guilherme SmithM
  • 9M. Biondic
  • 13K. RodriguezF
  • 23B. ZeneliF
Substitutes
  • 1V. ChambaereG
  • 55N. HavenaarD
  • 21D. De RoeveD
  • 17R. SchoofsM
  • 10A. Ait El HadjM
  • 28D. OlaruM
  • 14I. PavlicM
  • 30R. FloruczF
  • 38R. MofokengF
Coach: David Hubert
Anderlecht 4-4-2
  • 26C. CoosemansG
  • 79A. MaamarD
  • 4G. BianconeD
  • 27L. PetrotD
  • 6L. AugustinssonD
  • 18L. AmbrosM
  • 24E. LlansanaM
  • 55M. KanaM
  • 61J. Nga KanaM
  • 9M. Cvetkovic
  • 14D. SikanF
Substitutes
  • 32J. HeekerenG
  • 62B. VroninksD
  • 5M. N'DiayeD
  • 50K. BarryD
  • 2Z. Keita
  • 68N. Kalonji KafumpataM
  • 21T. BentayebF
  • 11O. AntmanF
  • 10M. WinklerF
Coach: Vitor Bruno

Form going into Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht

Union St. Gilloise

  • D0-0Zulte Waregem15 August 2026
  • L2-3away to Bodo/Glimt11 August 2026
  • W5-1away to KVC Westerlo8 August 2026
  • D3-3Bodo/Glimt4 August 2026

Anderlecht

  • W3-0Kairat Almaty27 August 2026
  • W3-0away to Kairat Almaty20 August 2026
  • L0-1away to SK Beveren16 August 2026
  • W3-2PAOK13 August 2026
  • W2-1RAAL La Louvière9 August 2026

What these results say

  • Union St. Gilloise failed to win 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Union St. Gilloise scored in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Union St. Gilloise conceded in 3 of these 4 matches.
  • Anderlecht won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Anderlecht scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Anderlecht had three goals or more.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Jupiler Pro League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Union St. Gilloise7610213+1819
5Anderlecht741275+213

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht

  • 30 August 2026Union St. Gilloise 3–0 AnderlechtJupiler Pro League
  • 24 May 2026Union St. Gilloise 5–1 AnderlechtJupiler Pro League
  • 14 May 2026Union St. Gilloise 3–1 AnderlechtCup
  • 26 April 2026Anderlecht 1–3 Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
  • 30 November 2025Anderlecht 1–0 Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
  • 31 August 2025Union St. Gilloise 2–0 AnderlechtJupiler Pro League

The full Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht record →

Leading scorers: Union St. Gilloise and Anderlecht

Union St. Gilloise

  • R. Florucz4 goals
  • R. Mofokeng3 goals1 assist

Anderlecht

No player in Jupiler Pro League's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.