KVC Westerlo
vs
Zulte Waregem
Jupiler Pro League prediction
The model makes it 63% KVC Westerlo, 21% draw, 16% Zulte Waregem — fair odds of 1.59, 4.76 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: KVC Westerlo 2.12, Zulte Waregem 0.98.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
KVC Westerlo
- L2-3away to Genk15 August 2026
- L1-5Union St. Gilloise8 August 2026
Zulte Waregem
- D0-0away to Union St. Gilloise15 August 2026
- W2-1Genk9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | KVC Westerlo | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 0 |
| 4 | Zulte Waregem | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 4 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
The two sides
KVC Westerlo carry a model rating of 6.86 against 6.63 for Zulte Waregem. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): KVC Westerlo L-L; Zulte Waregem W-D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.12 goals for KVC Westerlo and 0.98 for Zulte Waregem. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
KVC Westerlo rate 1.02 in attack and 1.01 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Zulte Waregem rate 0.69 and 1.10.
That points to 60% for over two and a half goals and 55% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (10%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Zulte Waregem, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 400 correct results out of 828 settled predictions (48%), with 78 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives KVC Westerlo the highest probability at 63%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.12 expected goals for KVC Westerlo against 0.98 for Zulte Waregem. KVC Westerlo's attack/defence rating is 1.02/1.01 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.1 for Zulte Waregem.