Ümraniyespor
vs
Boluspor
1. Lig prediction
Our model says: Ümraniyespor 1–0 Boluspor
The model makes it 49% Ümraniyespor, 28% draw, 23% Boluspor — fair odds of 2.04, 3.57 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Ümraniyespor 1.80, Boluspor 0.88.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Ümraniyespor are 16th on 6 points from 8 games; Boluspor are bottom on 1 point from 8 games — 1. Lig.
- Ümraniyespor have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 1-0 win away to Bandırmaspor.
- Boluspor have not won in their last 5, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Sarıyer.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 17 February 2026, ended Ümraniyespor 4–2 Boluspor.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Ümraniyespor vs Boluspor
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Ümraniyespor at 49% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Ümraniyespor vs Boluspor
Ümraniyespor
- W1-0away to Bandırmaspor18 September 2026
- L1-2Antalyaspor12 September 2026
- L0-1away to Pendikspor5 September 2026
- L0-1Muğlaspor1 September 2026
- D2-2away to Keçiörengücü28 August 2026
Boluspor
- L1-2away to Sarıyer19 September 2026
- D1-1Pendikspor12 September 2026
- L0-6away to Bandırmaspor5 September 2026
- L0-2Keçiörengücü1 September 2026
- L0-2away to Muğlaspor28 August 2026
What these results say
- Ümraniyespor failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Ümraniyespor conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Boluspor did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Boluspor conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Ümraniyespor | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 6 |
| 20 | Boluspor | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 20 | -17 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Ümraniyespor vs Boluspor
- 17 February 2026Ümraniyespor 4–2 Boluspor1. Lig
- 23 September 2025Boluspor 0–1 Ümraniyespor1. Lig
- 15 March 2025Ümraniyespor 1–0 Boluspor1. Lig
- 1 November 2024Boluspor 3–0 Ümraniyespor1. Lig
- 13 April 2024Boluspor 1–0 Ümraniyespor1. Lig
- 25 November 2023Ümraniyespor 1–2 Boluspor1. Lig
Leading scorers: Ümraniyespor and Boluspor
Ümraniyespor
- C. Soukou3 goals
Boluspor
No player in 1. Lig's leading scorers — 3 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Ümraniyespor carry a model rating of 6.27 against 6.06 for Boluspor. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.80 goals for Ümraniyespor and 0.88 for Boluspor. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Ümraniyespor rate 0.48 in attack and 1.55 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Boluspor rate 0.47 and 2.30.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Ümraniyespor the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Ümraniyespor against 0.88 for Boluspor. Ümraniyespor's attack/defence rating is 0.48/1.55 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.47/2.3 for Boluspor.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Ümraniyespor at home · Boluspor away
League matches only, 1. Lig, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Lig matches this season: Ümraniyespor 8, Boluspor 8.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Ümraniyespor
- at Vanspor FK18 Oct · 1. Ligwin 32%
- vs Sivasspor24 Oct · 1. Ligwin 38%
- at Bodrum FK1 Nov · 1. Ligwin 23%
- vs Kayserispor8 Nov · 1. Ligwin 33%
Boluspor
- at Iğdır FK18 Oct · 1. Ligwin 19%
- vs Vanspor FK23 Oct · 1. Ligwin 37%
- at Sivasspor1 Nov · 1. Ligwin 22%
- vs Bodrum FK8 Nov · 1. Ligwin 26%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.