Libertad Asuncion
vs
Club Guarani
Division Profesional - Clausura prediction
Our model says: Libertad Asuncion 1–0 Club Guarani
The model makes it 39% Libertad Asuncion, 30% draw, 31% Club Guarani — fair odds of 2.56, 3.33 and 3.23. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Libertad Asuncion 1.35, Club Guarani 1.10.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Low.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Libertad Asuncion are 2nd on 23 points from 12 games; Club Guarani are 5th on 20 points from 12 games — Division Profesional - Clausura.
- Libertad Asuncion have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Olimpia.
- Club Guarani are unbeaten in their last 5 (3 won), most recently a 1-0 win away to Sportivo Luqueno.
- Last 6 meetings: Club Guarani 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 2 August 2026, ended Club Guarani 2–1 Libertad Asuncion.
All Paraguayan Primera División Clausura predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Libertad Asuncion vs Club Guarani
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Libertad Asuncion at 39% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Libertad Asuncion vs Club Guarani
Libertad Asuncion
- L0-1Olimpia28 September 2026
- D1-1Sportivo Ameliano19 September 2026
- W2-0away to 2 de Mayo11 September 2026
- W4-2Rubio NU6 September 2026
- L0-3away to Nacional Asuncion2 September 2026
Club Guarani
- W1-0away to Sportivo Luqueno25 September 2026
- W1-0away to Sportivo Trinidense18 September 2026
- D1-1Cerro Porteno12 September 2026
- W2-0Deportivo Recoleta7 September 2026
- D1-1away to Olimpia2 September 2026
What these results say
- Libertad Asuncion conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Club Guarani went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Club Guarani scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Club Guarani had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Libertad Asuncion | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 13 | +6 | 23 |
| 5 | Club Guarani | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Libertad Asuncion vs Club Guarani
- 2 August 2026Club Guarani 2–1 Libertad AsuncionDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 5 April 2026Club Guarani 1–0 Libertad AsuncionDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 8 February 2026Libertad Asuncion 3–3 Club GuaraniDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 9 November 2025Club Guarani 1–2 Libertad AsuncionDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 1 October 2025Libertad Asuncion 2–2 Club GuaraniCopa Paraguay
- 25 August 2025Libertad Asuncion 0–4 Club GuaraniDivision Profesional - Clausura
Leading scorers: Libertad Asuncion and Club Guarani
Libertad Asuncion
- E. Vera12 goals2 assists
- I. Ramirez3 goals3 assists
Club Guarani
- S. Zaracho3 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Libertad Asuncion carry a model rating of 6.52 against 6.58 for Club Guarani. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.35 goals for Libertad Asuncion and 1.10 for Club Guarani. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Libertad Asuncion rate 0.74 in attack and 1.43 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Club Guarani rate 0.64 and 1.12.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Libertad Asuncion a 13.3% chance of the title and Club Guarani 3.3%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Libertad Asuncion the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Libertad Asuncion against 1.10 for Club Guarani. Libertad Asuncion's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1.43 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.64/1.12 for Club Guarani.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Libertad Asuncion at home · Club Guarani away
League matches only, Division Profesional - Clausura, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Division Profesional - Clausura matches this season: Libertad Asuncion 12, Club Guarani 12.
Club Guarani score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Libertad Asuncion have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Libertad Asuncion
- at Sportivo Trinidense21 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 28%
- vs Sportivo Luqueno29 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 55%
- at Club Sp. San Lorenzo5 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 49%
- vs Cerro Porteno8 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 41%
Club Guarani
- vs Nacional Asuncion21 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 35%
- at Rubio NU29 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 42%
- vs 2 de Mayo5 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 46%
- at Sportivo Ameliano8 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 35%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.