Gangwon FC
vs
Gwangju FC
K League 1 prediction
The model makes it 68% Gangwon FC, 20% draw, 12% Gwangju FC — fair odds of 1.47, 5.00 and 8.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Gangwon FC 2.11, Gwangju FC 0.79.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Gangwon FC
- L0-3Bucheon FC 19951 August 2026
- L1-2away to FC Anyang26 July 2026
- D1-1away to Jeju United FC21 July 2026
- W2-0Gimcheon Sangmu FC18 July 2026
- D0-0away to FC Seoul12 July 2026
Gwangju FC
- D0-0away to Bucheon FC 19958 August 2026
- L0-2away to Daejeon Citizen2 August 2026
- L1-2Jeju United FC26 July 2026
- D1-1Gimcheon Sangmu FC22 July 2026
- D1-1away to FC Anyang19 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Gangwon FC | 21 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 25 | 17 | +8 | 32 |
| 12 | Gwangju FC | 22 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 11 | 47 | -36 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Gangwon FC
- A. Halaihal3 goals
Gwangju FC
No league goals recorded yet.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Gangwon FC carry a model rating of 6.52 against 6.22 for Gwangju FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Gangwon FC D-W-D-L-L; Gwangju FC D-D-L-L-D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.11 goals for Gangwon FC and 0.79 for Gwangju FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Gangwon FC rate 0.76 in attack and 1.48 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Gwangju FC rate 0.38 and 1.47.
That points to 55% for over two and a half goals and 48% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-0 (12%), 1-0 (11%), 2-1 (10%).
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Gangwon FC a 1.1% chance of the title and Gwangju FC 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 314 correct results out of 656 settled predictions (48%), with 62 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Gangwon FC the highest probability at 68%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.11 expected goals for Gangwon FC against 0.79 for Gwangju FC. Gangwon FC's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.48 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.38/1.47 for Gwangju FC.