Talleres Cordoba
vs
Rosario Central
Liga Profesional Argentina prediction
The model makes it 56% Talleres Cordoba, 21% draw, 23% Rosario Central — fair odds of 1.79, 4.76 and 4.35. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (9%).
Expected goals: Talleres Cordoba 2.18, Rosario Central 1.34.
Both teams to score: 66%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Talleres Cordoba
- W4-0away to Platense3 August 2026
- L1-3Velez Sarsfield30 July 2026
- L0-1away to Newell's Old Boys25 July 2026
- L0-1Belgrano Cordoba9 May 2026
- D1-1away to Union Santa Fe2 May 2026
Rosario Central
No earlier matches on record this season.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Talleres Cordoba carry a model rating of 6.62 against 6.53 for Rosario Central. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Talleres Cordoba D-L-L-L-W; Rosario Central L-L-D-W-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.18 goals for Talleres Cordoba and 1.34 for Rosario Central. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Talleres Cordoba rate 0.76 in attack and 1.21 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Rosario Central rate 0.79 and 1.52.
That points to 68% for over two and a half goals and 66% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 2-0 (7%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 304 correct results out of 638 settled predictions (48%), with 61 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Talleres Cordoba the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.18 expected goals for Talleres Cordoba against 1.34 for Rosario Central. Talleres Cordoba's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.21 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.79/1.52 for Rosario Central.