Jeju United FC
vs
Pohang Steelers
K League 1 prediction
The model makes it 91% Jeju United FC, 6% draw, 3% Pohang Steelers — fair odds of 1.10, 16.67 and 33.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 4-1 (7%).
Expected goals: Jeju United FC 4.89, Pohang Steelers 1.15.
Both teams to score: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 94%, under 2.5: 6%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Jeju United FC
- W3-1away to Jeonbuk Motors8 August 2026
- D3-3Incheon United2 August 2026
- W2-1away to Gwangju FC26 July 2026
- D1-1Gangwon FC21 July 2026
- W2-1Pohang Steelers18 July 2026
Pohang Steelers
- L0-2Ulsan Hyundai FC8 August 2026
- L0-1Gimcheon Sangmu FC1 August 2026
- L0-2Jeonbuk Motors25 July 2026
- L1-3away to FC Seoul22 July 2026
- L1-2away to Jeju United FC18 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
K League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Jeju United FC | 22 | 8 | 7 | 7 | 25 | 24 | +1 | 31 |
| 8 | Pohang Steelers | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 20 | 24 | -4 | 28 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Jeju United FC
No league goals recorded yet.
Pohang Steelers
- Lee Ho-Jae4 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
A clear gap in the ratings
Jeju United FC carry a model rating of 6.68 against 6.03 for Pohang Steelers. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Jeju United FC W-D-W-D-W; Pohang Steelers L-L-L-L-L.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 4.89 goals for Jeju United FC and 1.15 for Pohang Steelers. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Jeju United FC rate 1.17 in attack and 1.91 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Pohang Steelers rate 0.43 and 2.21.
That points to 94% for over two and a half goals and 68% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 4-1 (7%), 5-1 (7%), 4-0 (6%).
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Jeju United FC a 0.2% chance of the title and Pohang Steelers 0%, from 10000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 304 correct results out of 638 settled predictions (48%), with 61 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Jeju United FC the highest probability at 91%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 4.89 expected goals for Jeju United FC against 1.15 for Pohang Steelers. Jeju United FC's attack/defence rating is 1.17/1.91 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.43/2.21 for Pohang Steelers.