FC Saarbrücken
vs
MSV Duisburg
3. Liga prediction
Our model says: FC Saarbrücken 2–1 MSV Duisburg
The model makes it 36% FC Saarbrücken, 28% draw, 36% MSV Duisburg — fair odds of 2.78, 3.57 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: FC Saarbrücken 1.46, MSV Duisburg 1.46.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 56%, under 2.5: 44%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: FC Saarbrücken and MSV Duisburg are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- FC Saarbrücken are 4th on 13 points from 7 games; MSV Duisburg are top on 18 points from 7 games — 3. Liga.
- FC Saarbrücken have won 2 of their last 5, most recently a 2-1 win at home to SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach.
- MSV Duisburg have won 4 of their last 5, most recently a 4-1 win away to SV Wehen.
- Last 6 meetings: MSV Duisburg 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 8 March 2026, ended MSV Duisburg 4–2 FC Saarbrücken.
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: FC Saarbrücken vs MSV Duisburg
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Saarbrücken at 36% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 2,313 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into FC Saarbrücken vs MSV Duisburg
FC Saarbrücken
- W2-1SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach19 September 2026
- D3-3away to Preußen Münster16 September 2026
- L0-1FC Ingolstadt 0412 September 2026
- W6-1away to SV Meppen5 September 2026
- L2-4Hansa Rostock30 August 2026
MSV Duisburg
- W4-1away to SV Wehen20 September 2026
- W2-1Havelse15 September 2026
- L1-2away to Fortuna Düsseldorf12 September 2026
- W2-1away to SSV Jahn Regensburg5 September 2026
- W3-0Würzburger Kickers29 August 2026
What these results say
- FC Saarbrücken conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Saarbrücken scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for FC Saarbrücken had three goals or more.
- MSV Duisburg scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for MSV Duisburg had three goals or more.
- MSV Duisburg won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
3. Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | FC Saarbrücken | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 12 | +7 | 13 |
| 1 | MSV Duisburg | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: FC Saarbrücken vs MSV Duisburg
- 8 March 2026MSV Duisburg 4–2 FC Saarbrücken3. Liga
- 30 September 2025FC Saarbrücken 0–0 MSV Duisburg3. Liga
- 16 March 2024MSV Duisburg 2–0 FC Saarbrücken3. Liga
- 29 November 2023FC Saarbrücken 0–0 MSV Duisburg3. Liga
- 21 May 2023MSV Duisburg 2–2 FC Saarbrucken3. Liga
- 14 January 2023FC Saarbrucken 2–3 MSV Duisburg3. Liga
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
FC Saarbrücken carry a model rating of 6.28 against 6.43 for MSV Duisburg. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.46 goals for FC Saarbrücken and 1.46 for MSV Duisburg. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
FC Saarbrücken rate 0.59 in attack and 1.86 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; MSV Duisburg rate 0.65 and 1.52.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour MSV Duisburg, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives FC Saarbrücken a 4.6% chance of the title and MSV Duisburg 32.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Saarbrücken the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.46 expected goals for FC Saarbrücken against 1.46 for MSV Duisburg. FC Saarbrücken's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.86 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.52 for MSV Duisburg.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
FC Saarbrücken at home · MSV Duisburg away
League matches only, 3. Liga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 3. Liga matches this season: FC Saarbrücken 7, MSV Duisburg 7.
FC Saarbrücken score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); MSV Duisburg have let in 2 there.
MSV Duisburg score most often in the 61–75 minute window (7 goals); FC Saarbrücken have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
FC Saarbrücken
- at Fortuna Düsseldorf17 Oct · 3. Ligawin 27%
- at Havelse24 Oct · 3. Ligawin 39%
- vs Waldhof Mannheim31 Oct · 3. Ligawin 47%
- at FC Viktoria Köln7 Nov · 3. Ligawin 27%
MSV Duisburg
- vs FC Viktoria Köln17 Oct · 3. Ligawin 44%
- at FC Ingolstadt 0424 Oct · 3. Ligawin 37%
- vs Stuttgart II31 Oct · 3. Ligawin 55%
- at Preußen Münster7 Nov · 3. Ligawin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.