Lorient
vs
Estac Troyes
Ligue 1 prediction
The model makes it 37% Lorient, 27% draw, 36% Estac Troyes — fair odds of 2.70, 3.70 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Lorient 1.33, Estac Troyes 1.33.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Low.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Lorient vs Estac Troyes
- 14 February 2025Estac Troyes 0–1 LorientLigue 2
- 6 December 2024Lorient 2–0 Estac TroyesLigue 2
- 12 March 2023Lorient 2–0 Estac TroyesLigue 1
- 23 October 2022Estac Troyes 2–2 LorientLigue 1
- 21 May 2022Lorient 1–1 Estac TroyesLigue 1
- 1 December 2021Estac Troyes 2–0 LorientLigue 1
The two sides
Lorient carry a model rating of 6.85 against 7 for Estac Troyes. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.33 goals for Lorient and 1.33 for Estac Troyes. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Lorient rate 0.94 in attack and 0.95 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Estac Troyes rate 1.00 and 0.75.
That points to 50% for over two and a half goals and 55% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (9%), 0-1 (9%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 350 correct results out of 734 settled predictions (48%), with 70 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Lorient the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Lorient against 1.33 for Estac Troyes. Lorient's attack/defence rating is 0.94/0.95 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1/0.75 for Estac Troyes.