Stockport County
vs
AFC Wimbledon
League One prediction
Our model says: Stockport County 2–0 AFC Wimbledon
The model makes it 61% Stockport County, 23% draw, 16% AFC Wimbledon — fair odds of 1.64, 4.35 and 6.25. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Stockport County 2.03, AFC Wimbledon 0.79.
Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: High.
One-sided: Stockport County are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Stockport County are 2nd on 19 points from 10 games; AFC Wimbledon are 15th on 12 points from 10 games — League One.
- Stockport County are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Bromley.
- AFC Wimbledon are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-5 defeat away to Sheffield Wednesday.
- Last 6 meetings: Stockport County 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 15 April 2026, ended AFC Wimbledon 0–2 Stockport County.
More League One predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Stockport County at 61% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 989 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon
Stockport County
- W1-0Bromley17 October 2026
- W3-1Barnsley10 October 2026
- W1-0Peterborough26 September 2026
- D0-0away to Sheffield Wednesday19 September 2026
- L3-4Leicester12 September 2026
AFC Wimbledon
- L0-5away to Sheffield Wednesday17 October 2026
- L1-2away to Plymouth10 October 2026
- D1-1away to Cambridge United26 September 2026
- D0-0Milton Keynes Dons17 September 2026
- W1-0Doncaster12 September 2026
What these results say
- Stockport County scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- AFC Wimbledon failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Stockport County | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 11 | +10 | 19 |
| 15 | AFC Wimbledon | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 12 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Stockport County
Chance to finish in the top four · 49% today
AFC Wimbledon
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 37% today
From our League One season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon
- 15 April 2026AFC Wimbledon 0–2 Stockport CountyLeague One
- 28 March 2026Stockport County 3–0 AFC WimbledonLeague One
- 1 April 2024Stockport County 1–0 AFC WimbledonLeague Two
- 9 September 2023AFC Wimbledon 1–2 Stockport CountyLeague Two
- 28 January 2023AFC Wimbledon 1–0 Stockport CountyLeague Two
- 3 September 2022Stockport County 1–0 AFC WimbledonLeague Two
Leading scorers: Stockport County and AFC Wimbledon
Stockport County
GoalsAssists
- K. Wootton71
- J. Diamond42
AFC Wimbledon
GoalsAssists
- J. Stockley41
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Stockport County carry a model rating of 6.42 against 6.05 for AFC Wimbledon. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.03 goals for Stockport County and 0.79 for AFC Wimbledon. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Stockport County rate 0.67 in attack and 1.60 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; AFC Wimbledon rate 0.40 and 1.99.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Stockport County a 14.3% chance of the title and AFC Wimbledon 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Stockport County the highest probability at 61%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Stockport County against 0.79 for AFC Wimbledon. Stockport County's attack/defence rating is 0.67/1.6 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.4/1.99 for AFC Wimbledon.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Stockport County at home · AFC Wimbledon away
League matches only, League One, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League One matches this season: Stockport County 10, AFC Wimbledon 9.
Stockport County score most often in the 16–30 minute window (7 goals); AFC Wimbledon have let in 3 there.
AFC Wimbledon score most often in the 16–30 minute window (3 goals); Stockport County have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Stockport County
- vs Reading14 Nov · League Onewin 44%
- at Cambridge United21 Nov · League Onewin 35%
AFC Wimbledon
- vs Blackpool14 Nov · League Onewin 33%
- at Leyton Orient21 Nov · League Onewin 21%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.