Standard Liege
vs
Antwerp
Jupiler Pro League prediction
The model makes it 36% Standard Liege, 24% draw, 40% Antwerp — fair odds of 2.78, 4.17 and 2.50. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Standard Liege 1.60, Antwerp 1.67.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Standard Liege
- W2-0RAAL La Louvière21 August 2026
- D3-3away to KV Mechelen16 August 2026
- D2-2Cercle Brugge8 August 2026
Antwerp
- W3-0away to Kortrijk15 August 2026
- W2-1SK Beveren9 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Standard Liege | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 5 |
| 2 | Antwerp | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | +4 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Head-to-head: Standard Liege vs Antwerp
- 3 May 2026Antwerp 0–5 Standard LiegeJupiler Pro League
- 21 April 2026Standard Liege 1–2 AntwerpJupiler Pro League
- 15 March 2026Antwerp 1–1 Standard LiegeJupiler Pro League
- 20 October 2025Standard Liege 1–0 AntwerpJupiler Pro League
- 16 March 2025Standard Liege 0–0 AntwerpJupiler Pro League
- 27 October 2024Antwerp 3–0 Standard LiegeJupiler Pro League
Leading scorers
Standard Liege
- A. Abid2 goals1 assists
- D. Eckert Ayensa2 goals
Antwerp
- A. Valencia2 goals
- M. Frey2 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Standard Liege carry a model rating of 6.67 against 6.84 for Antwerp. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
Recent form (most recent last): Standard Liege D-D-W; Antwerp W-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.60 goals for Standard Liege and 1.67 for Antwerp. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Standard Liege rate 0.90 in attack and 1.30 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Antwerp rate 0.92 and 0.94.
That points to 64% for over two and a half goals and 65% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 495 correct results out of 1026 settled predictions (48%), with 95 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Antwerp the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.6 expected goals for Standard Liege against 1.67 for Antwerp. Standard Liege's attack/defence rating is 0.9/1.3 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.92/0.94 for Antwerp.