Monaco
vs
Lille
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: Monaco 1–0 Lille
The model makes it 39% Monaco, 28% draw, 33% Lille — fair odds of 2.56, 3.57 and 3.03. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Monaco 1.41, Lille 1.25.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Low.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
The full preview, with the complete head-to-head record →
Key facts
- Monaco are top on 14 points from 6 games; Lille are 2nd on 13 points from 6 games — Ligue 1.
- Monaco are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 2-2 draw at home to Toulouse.
- Lille have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Le Havre.
- Last 6 meetings: Lille 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 10 May 2026, ended Monaco 0–1 Lille.
More Ligue 1 (France) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Monaco vs Lille
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Monaco at 39% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Monaco vs Lille
Monaco
- D2-2Toulouse10 October 2026
- W2-1Lens18 September 2026
- D1-1away to Strasbourg12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Paris Saint Germain4 September 2026
- W2-0Marseille30 August 2026
Lille
- W1-0Le Havre10 October 2026
- L1-2away to Nice20 September 2026
- W2-0Estac Troyes13 September 2026
- W1-0away to Toulouse3 September 2026
- D2-2Paris Saint Germain28 August 2026
What these results say
- Monaco went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Monaco scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Monaco conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Lille scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 14 |
| 2 | Lille | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Monaco
Chance to finish in the top four · 68% today
Lille
Chance to finish in the top four · 61% today
From our Ligue 1 season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Monaco vs Lille
- 10 May 2026Monaco 0–1 LilleLigue 1
- 24 August 2025Lille 1–0 MonacoLigue 1
- 22 February 2025Lille 2–1 MonacoLigue 1
- 18 October 2024Monaco 0–0 LilleLigue 1
- 24 April 2024Monaco 1–0 LilleLigue 1
- 29 October 2023Lille 2–0 MonacoLigue 1
Leading scorers: Monaco and Lille
Monaco
GoalsAssists
- Paris Josua Brunner40
Lille
GoalsAssists
- D. Bakwa21
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Monaco carry a model rating of 7 against 7.06 for Lille. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.41 goals for Monaco and 1.25 for Lille. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Monaco rate 1.21 in attack and 0.90 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Lille rate 1.02 and 0.69.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Monaco a 18% chance of the title and Lille 13.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,776 correct results out of 3,725 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Monaco the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Monaco against 1.25 for Lille. Monaco's attack/defence rating is 1.21/0.9 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.02/0.69 for Lille.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Monaco at home · Lille away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
MonacoLille
Monaco are 1st after 6 Ligue 1 matches (between 1st and 5th so far); Lille are 1st after 6 (between 1st and 4th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: Monaco 6, Lille 6.
Monaco score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Lille have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Monaco
- at Paris FC1 Nov · Ligue 1win 30%
- vs FC Nordsjaelland5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 62%
Lille
- vs Lens30 Oct · Ligue 1win 48%
- at Bodo/Glimt3 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 33%
- at Rennes8 Nov · Ligue 1win 41%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.