Le Mans
vs
Monaco
Ligue 1 prediction
Our model says: Le Mans 1–2 Monaco
The model makes it 25% Le Mans, 24% draw, 51% Monaco — fair odds of 4.00, 4.17 and 1.96. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Le Mans 1.29, Monaco 2.05.
Both teams to score: 64%. Over 2.5 goals: 65%, under 2.5: 35%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,566 settled matches.
One-sided: Monaco are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 25 October 2026. Le Mans's rating is built from 7 Ligue 1 (France) matches and Monaco's from 41, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 680 matches.
Key facts
- Le Mans are 16th on 6 points from 7 games; Monaco are 5th on 14 points from 7 games — Ligue 1.
- Le Mans have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to Toulouse.
- Monaco have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Lorient.
- Last 4 meetings: Monaco 3 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 17 May 2013, ended Monaco 2–1 Le Mans.
More Ligue 1 (France) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Le Mans vs Monaco
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Monaco at 51% here. Across 4,776 settled matches (as of 25 October 2026), 1,179 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Le Mans vs Monaco
Le Mans
Ligue 1
- L0-3Toulouse16 October 2026
- L1-3away to Paris Saint Germain10 October 2026
- W2-1Lorient19 September 2026
- D2-2Lens13 September 2026
- D1-1away to Nice5 September 2026
Monaco
Ligue 1
- L0-1away to Lorient18 October 2026
- D2-2Toulouse10 October 2026
- W2-1Lens18 September 2026
- D1-1away to Strasbourg12 September 2026
- W2-1away to Paris Saint Germain4 September 2026
What these results say
- Le Mans conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Le Mans failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Le Mans scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Monaco conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Monaco scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Monaco.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Le Mans | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 6 |
| 5 | Monaco | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Le Mans vs Monaco
- 17 May 2013Monaco 2–1 Le MansLigue 2
- 22 December 2012Le Mans 2–3 MonacoLigue 2
- 30 March 2012Le Mans 0–1 MonacoLigue 2
- 5 November 2011Monaco 2–2 Le MansLigue 2
Leading scorers: Le Mans and Monaco
Le Mans
GoalsAssists
- L. Mafouta41
- A. Bourabaa32
Monaco
GoalsAssists
- Paris Josua Brunner40
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Le Mans carry a model rating of 6.66 against 6.99 for Monaco. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.29 goals for Le Mans and 2.05 for Monaco. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Le Mans rate 0.88 in attack and 1.30 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Monaco rate 1.14 and 0.87.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Le Mans a 0% chance of the title and Monaco 9.9%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,309 correct results out of 4,819 settled predictions (48%), with 476 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Monaco the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Le Mans against 2.05 for Monaco. Le Mans's attack/defence rating is 0.88/1.3 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.14/0.87 for Monaco.
How the model reaches 51% for Monaco to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Monaco to win. Then home advantage takes away 5 points, Le Mans's ratings add 11 points and Monaco's ratings add 8 points, which lands on the published 51%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage32%−5
- Le Mans's ratings43%+11
- Monaco's ratings51%+8
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Le Mans at home · Monaco away
League matches only, Ligue 1, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Le MansMonaco
Le Mans are 16th after 7 Ligue 1 matches (between 3rd and 15th so far); Monaco are 5th after 7 (between 1st and 5th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ligue 1 matches this season: Le Mans 7, Monaco 7.
Le Mans score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Monaco have let in 3 there.
Monaco score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Le Mans have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Le Mans
- at Marseille22 Nov · Ligue 1win 17%
- vs Lille28 Nov · Ligue 1win 23%
- at Paris FC5 Dec · Ligue 1win 16%
Monaco
- vs Auxerre21 Nov · Ligue 1win 60%
- at Heart of Midlothian26 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 52%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.