Sportivo Trinidense
vs
Sportivo Luqueno
Division Profesional - Clausura prediction
Our model says: Sportivo Trinidense 2–0 Sportivo Luqueno
The model makes it 57% Sportivo Trinidense, 24% draw, 19% Sportivo Luqueno — fair odds of 1.75, 4.17 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Sportivo Trinidense 2.42, Sportivo Luqueno 0.89.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Sportivo Trinidense are 6th on 20 points from 12 games; Sportivo Luqueno are 9th on 13 points from 12 games — Division Profesional - Clausura.
- Sportivo Trinidense have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Cerro Porteno.
- Sportivo Luqueno have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Club Guarani.
- Last 6 meetings: Sportivo Luqueno 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 29 July 2026, ended Sportivo Luqueno 1–4 Sportivo Trinidense.
All Paraguayan Primera División Clausura predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Sportivo Trinidense vs Sportivo Luqueno
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sportivo Trinidense at 57% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sportivo Trinidense vs Sportivo Luqueno
Sportivo Trinidense
- W2-1Cerro Porteno26 September 2026
- L0-1Club Guarani18 September 2026
- W3-1away to Deportivo Recoleta12 September 2026
- L1-2Olimpia6 September 2026
- W3-0away to Sportivo Ameliano2 September 2026
Sportivo Luqueno
- L0-1Club Guarani25 September 2026
- W1-0Deportivo Recoleta20 September 2026
- L0-3away to Olimpia13 September 2026
- L1-2Sportivo Ameliano6 September 2026
- D2-2away to 2 de Mayo1 September 2026
What these results say
- Sportivo Trinidense scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sportivo Trinidense conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Sportivo Trinidense had three goals or more.
- Sportivo Luqueno failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sportivo Luqueno conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Sportivo Trinidense | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 20 | 11 | +9 | 20 |
| 9 | Sportivo Luqueno | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 13 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Sportivo Trinidense vs Sportivo Luqueno
- 29 July 2026Sportivo Luqueno 1–4 Sportivo TrinidenseDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 25 April 2026Sportivo Luqueno 2–1 Sportivo TrinidenseDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 25 February 2026Sportivo Trinidense 1–1 Sportivo LuquenoDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 17 October 2025Sportivo Luqueno 1–0 Sportivo TrinidenseDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 2 August 2025Sportivo Trinidense 2–0 Sportivo LuquenoDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 15 April 2025Sportivo Luqueno 1–0 Sportivo TrinidenseDivision Profesional - Apertura
Leading scorers: Sportivo Trinidense and Sportivo Luqueno
Sportivo Trinidense
- F. Romero7 goals1 assist
- L. Abreu3 goals1 assist
Sportivo Luqueno
No player in Division Profesional - Clausura's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Sportivo Trinidense carry a model rating of 6.59 against 6.24 for Sportivo Luqueno. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.42 goals for Sportivo Trinidense and 0.89 for Sportivo Luqueno. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sportivo Trinidense rate 0.75 in attack and 1.27 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sportivo Luqueno rate 0.58 and 1.98.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sportivo Trinidense a 7.1% chance of the title and Sportivo Luqueno 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sportivo Trinidense the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.42 expected goals for Sportivo Trinidense against 0.89 for Sportivo Luqueno. Sportivo Trinidense's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.27 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.58/1.98 for Sportivo Luqueno.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sportivo Trinidense at home · Sportivo Luqueno away
League matches only, Division Profesional - Clausura, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Division Profesional - Clausura matches this season: Sportivo Trinidense 12, Sportivo Luqueno 12.
Sportivo Trinidense score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Sportivo Luqueno have let in 6 there.
Sportivo Luqueno score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Sportivo Trinidense have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Sportivo Trinidense
- at Club Sp. San Lorenzo14 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 51%
- vs Libertad Asuncion21 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 44%
- at Nacional Asuncion29 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 26%
- vs Rubio NU5 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 59%
- at 2 de Mayo8 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 36%
Sportivo Luqueno
- vs Cerro Porteno14 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 30%
- vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo21 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 50%
- at Libertad Asuncion29 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 20%
- vs Nacional Asuncion5 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 24%
- at Rubio NU8 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 30%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.