Sportivo Luqueno
vs
Cerro Porteno
Division Profesional - Clausura prediction
Our model says: Sportivo Luqueno 1–2 Cerro Porteno
The model makes it 30% Sportivo Luqueno, 29% draw, 41% Cerro Porteno — fair odds of 3.33, 3.45 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Sportivo Luqueno 1.20, Cerro Porteno 1.60.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Sportivo Luqueno are 9th on 13 points from 12 games; Cerro Porteno are 8th on 17 points from 12 games — Division Profesional - Clausura.
- Sportivo Luqueno have won 1 of their last 5, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Club Guarani.
- Cerro Porteno have won 3 of their last 5, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Sportivo Trinidense.
- Last 6 meetings: Cerro Porteno 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 1 August 2026, ended Cerro Porteno 3–0 Sportivo Luqueno.
All Paraguayan Primera División Clausura predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Sportivo Luqueno vs Cerro Porteno
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Cerro Porteno at 41% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 1,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 44.8% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Sportivo Luqueno vs Cerro Porteno
Sportivo Luqueno
- L0-1Club Guarani25 September 2026
- W1-0Deportivo Recoleta20 September 2026
- L0-3away to Olimpia13 September 2026
- L1-2Sportivo Ameliano6 September 2026
- D2-2away to 2 de Mayo1 September 2026
Cerro Porteno
- L1-2away to Sportivo Trinidense26 September 2026
- W1-0Rubio NU19 September 2026
- D1-1away to Club Guarani12 September 2026
- W1-0Nacional Asuncion7 September 2026
- W3-1away to Deportivo Recoleta3 September 2026
What these results say
- Sportivo Luqueno failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sportivo Luqueno conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Cerro Porteno scored in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Sportivo Luqueno | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 13 |
| 8 | Cerro Porteno | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Sportivo Luqueno vs Cerro Porteno
- 1 August 2026Cerro Porteno 3–0 Sportivo LuquenoDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 31 March 2026Sportivo Luqueno 2–3 Cerro PortenoDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 2 February 2026Cerro Porteno 2–0 Sportivo LuquenoDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 27 September 2025Sportivo Luqueno 0–1 Cerro PortenoDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 20 July 2025Cerro Porteno 0–0 Sportivo LuquenoDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 12 April 2025Cerro Porteno 0–0 Sportivo LuquenoDivision Profesional - Apertura
Leading scorers: Sportivo Luqueno and Cerro Porteno
Sportivo Luqueno
No player in Division Profesional - Clausura's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Cerro Porteno
- P. Vegetti6 goals
- D. Rodríguez3 goals3 assists
- I. Ramírez3 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Sportivo Luqueno carry a model rating of 6.24 against 6.53 for Cerro Porteno. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.20 goals for Sportivo Luqueno and 1.60 for Cerro Porteno. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Sportivo Luqueno rate 0.58 in attack and 1.98 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Cerro Porteno rate 0.67 and 1.27.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Sportivo Luqueno a 0% chance of the title and Cerro Porteno 1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Cerro Porteno the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Sportivo Luqueno against 1.60 for Cerro Porteno. Sportivo Luqueno's attack/defence rating is 0.58/1.98 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.67/1.27 for Cerro Porteno.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Sportivo Luqueno at home · Cerro Porteno away
League matches only, Division Profesional - Clausura, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Division Profesional - Clausura matches this season: Sportivo Luqueno 12, Cerro Porteno 12.
Sportivo Luqueno score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Cerro Porteno have let in 2 there.
Cerro Porteno score most often in the 0–15 minute window (6 goals); Sportivo Luqueno have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Sportivo Luqueno
- vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo21 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 50%
- at Libertad Asuncion29 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 20%
- vs Nacional Asuncion5 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 24%
- at Rubio NU8 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 30%
Cerro Porteno
- vs Sportivo Ameliano21 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 46%
- at Club Sp. San Lorenzo29 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 48%
- vs Olimpia5 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 37%
- at Libertad Asuncion8 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 30%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.