Nacional Asuncion
vs
Deportivo Recoleta
Division Profesional - Clausura prediction
Our model says: Nacional Asuncion 2–0 Deportivo Recoleta
The model makes it 62% Nacional Asuncion, 23% draw, 15% Deportivo Recoleta — fair odds of 1.61, 4.35 and 6.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: Nacional Asuncion 2.58, Deportivo Recoleta 0.75.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.
Model confidence: High.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Nacional Asuncion are 3rd on 22 points from 12 games; Deportivo Recoleta are 11th on 8 points from 12 games — Division Profesional - Clausura.
- Nacional Asuncion are unbeaten in 3, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Sportivo Ameliano.
- Deportivo Recoleta have not won in their last 5, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Club Sp. San Lorenzo.
- Last 6 meetings: Nacional Asuncion 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 3 August 2026, ended Deportivo Recoleta 3–2 Nacional Asuncion.
All Paraguayan Primera División Clausura predictions →
Live win probability
From kick-offThese update every few seconds once the match kicks off, as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards. The second figure is fair odds — 100 ÷ probability, the price with no margin in it.
Model insights: Nacional Asuncion vs Deportivo Recoleta
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Nacional Asuncion at 62% here. Across 2,959 settled matches (as of 3 October 2026), 691 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 53.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.4%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into Nacional Asuncion vs Deportivo Recoleta
Nacional Asuncion
- D1-1Sportivo Ameliano25 September 2026
- W3-02 de Mayo18 September 2026
- W1-0away to Rubio NU13 September 2026
- L0-1away to Cerro Porteno7 September 2026
- W3-0Libertad Asuncion2 September 2026
Deportivo Recoleta
- D0-0away to Club Sp. San Lorenzo28 September 2026
- L0-1away to Sportivo Luqueno20 September 2026
- L1-3Sportivo Trinidense12 September 2026
- L0-2away to Club Guarani7 September 2026
- L1-3Cerro Porteno3 September 2026
What these results say
- Nacional Asuncion scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Deportivo Recoleta did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Deportivo Recoleta conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Nacional Asuncion | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 19 | 7 | +12 | 22 |
| 11 | Deportivo Recoleta | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 8 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Nacional Asuncion vs Deportivo Recoleta
- 3 August 2026Deportivo Recoleta 3–2 Nacional AsuncionDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 24 April 2026Nacional Asuncion 2–1 Deportivo RecoletaDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 5 March 2026Nacional Asuncion 1–1 Deportivo RecoletaCONMEBOL Sudamericana
- 26 February 2026Deportivo Recoleta 2–2 Nacional AsuncionDivision Profesional - Apertura
- 27 November 2025Deportivo Recoleta 0–0 Nacional AsuncionDivision Profesional - Clausura
- 6 September 2025Nacional Asuncion 1–0 Deportivo RecoletaDivision Profesional - Clausura
Leading scorers: Nacional Asuncion and Deportivo Recoleta
Nacional Asuncion
- H. Benítez5 goals5 assists
- I. Valdez5 goals
Deportivo Recoleta
- A. Wlk13 goals1 assist
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Nacional Asuncion carry a model rating of 6.71 against 6.24 for Deportivo Recoleta. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.58 goals for Nacional Asuncion and 0.75 for Deportivo Recoleta. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Nacional Asuncion rate 0.74 in attack and 1.00 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Deportivo Recoleta rate 0.62 and 2.14.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Nacional Asuncion a 24.8% chance of the title and Deportivo Recoleta 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,381 correct results out of 2,964 settled predictions (47%), with 285 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Nacional Asuncion the highest probability at 62%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.58 expected goals for Nacional Asuncion against 0.75 for Deportivo Recoleta. Nacional Asuncion's attack/defence rating is 0.74/1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/2.14 for Deportivo Recoleta.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Nacional Asuncion at home · Deportivo Recoleta away
League matches only, Division Profesional - Clausura, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Division Profesional - Clausura matches this season: Nacional Asuncion 12, Deportivo Recoleta 12.
Nacional Asuncion score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Deportivo Recoleta have let in 7 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Nacional Asuncion
- at Club Guarani21 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 33%
- vs Sportivo Trinidense29 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 44%
- at Sportivo Luqueno5 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 48%
- vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo8 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 66%
Deportivo Recoleta
- vs Rubio NU21 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 43%
- at 2 de Mayo29 Oct · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 24%
- vs Sportivo Ameliano5 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 35%
- at Olimpia8 Nov · Division Profesional - Clausurawin 16%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.