19 July 2026

Spain vs Argentina World Cup prediction & result

Full time1 – 0

Final score: Spain 1-0 Argentina.

Before kick-off the model made it 33% Spain, 45% draw, 22% Argentina — fair odds of 3.03, 2.22 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-0.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts the draw at 45% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

-5'
Cristian Romero
41'
Lisandro Martínez
44'
🔁L. Martinezout: N. Otamendi
46'
🔁N. Gonzalezout: L. Paredes
52'
Leandro Paredes
58'
🔁G. Montielout: N. Molina
🔁M. Oyarzabalout: F. Torres
62'
🔁F. Ruizout: Pedri
62'
70'
🔁R. de Paulout: G. Simeone
70'
🔁C. Romeroout: F. Medina
🔁D. Olmoout: M. Merino
75'
🔁A. Baenaout: N. Williams
75'
83'
Enzo Fernández
90+3'
Enzo Fernández
90+3'
Enzo Fernández
🔁Rodriout: M. Zubimendi
99'
🔁A. Laporteout: E. Garcia
99'
102'
🔁J. Alvarezout: M. Senesi
⚽F. Torresassist: N. Williams
106'
111'
Alexis Mac Allister

Match stats — Spain vs Argentina

65%Possession35%
20Shots2
12On target0
9Corners4
1.94xG0.22

Goals against chances

Spain1 from 1.94 xGless than the chances were worth
Argentina0 from 0.22 xGabout what the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

Spain 4-2-3-1
  • 23U. SimonG
  • 12P. PorroD
  • 22P. CubarsiD
  • 14A. LaporteD
  • 24M. CucurellaD
  • 16RodriM
  • 8F. RuizM
  • 19Lamine YamalM
  • 10D. OlmoM
  • 15A. BaenaM
  • 21M. OyarzabalF
Substitutes
  • 1D. RayaG
  • 13J. GarciaG
  • 5M. LlorenteM
  • 7F. TorresF
  • 18M. ZubimendiM
  • 20PedriM
  • 9GaviM
  • 3A. GrimaldoD
  • 26B. IglesiasF
Coach: Luis de la Fuente
Argentina 4-4-2
  • 23E. MartinezG
  • 4G. MontielD
  • 13C. RomeroD
  • 6L. MartinezD
  • 3N. TagliaficoD
  • 7R. de PaulM
  • 24E. FernandezM
  • 20A. Mac AllisterM
  • 15N. GonzalezM
  • 10L. MessiF
  • 9J. AlvarezF
Substitutes
  • 12G. RulliG
  • 1J. MussoG
  • 19N. OtamendiD
  • 5L. ParedesM
  • 14E. PalaciosM
  • 26N. MolinaD
  • 17G. SimeoneF
  • 11G. Lo CelsoM
  • 22L. MartinezF
Coach: Lionel Scaloni

Head-to-head: Spain vs Argentina

  • 27 March 2018Spain 6–1 ArgentinaFriendlies

Leading scorers: Spain and Argentina

Spain

GoalsAssists

  • Lamine Yamal41
  • Mikel Merino31

Argentina

No leading scorers listed yet.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Spain beat Argentina 1–0. The model had leaned towards a draw at 45% and given a win for Spain 33%. At that figure it expects the outcome about once in every 3 matches like this one. The goal: F. Torres 106' for Spain. Sent off: Enzo Fernández (Argentina) 90+3'. On expected goals it finished 1.94–0.22.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.