18 July 2026

France vs England World Cup prediction & result

Full time4 – 6

Final score: France 4-6 England.

Before kick-off the model made it 21% France, 31% draw, 48% England — fair odds of 4.76, 3.23 and 2.08. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

It puts England at 48% here. Across 5,149 settled matches (as of 30 October 2026), 2,375 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

3'
⚽D. Rice
18'
⚽E. Konsaassist: D. Rice
37'
⚽B. Sakaassist: M. Rashford
45'
⚽B. Sakaassist: E. Eze
🔁R. Cherkiout: O. Dembele
46'
🔁T. Hernandezout: L. Digne
46'
🔁I. Konateout: D. Upamecano
46'
🔁D. Doueout: B. Barcola
46'
46'
🔁M. Rashfordout: O. Watkins
⚽K. Mbappeassist: M. Olise
48'
⚽B. Barcolaassist: K. Mbappe
54'
⚽K. Mbappeassist: M. Olise
66'
79'
🔁E. Ezeout: J. Bellingham
79'
🔁I. Toneyout: E. Anderson
83'
🔁J. Quansahout: R. James
87'
⚽B. Saka (pen)
🔁M. Gustoout: J. Kounde
90+1'
90+3'
🔁M. Guehiout: T. Chalobah
⚽O. Dembeleassist: D. Upamecano
90'
90'
⚽J. Bellingham

Match stats — France vs England

46%Possession54%
19Shots19
9On target11
3Corners4
2.87xG2.58

Goals against chances

France4 from 2.87 xGmore than the chances were worth
England6 from 2.58 xGmore than the chances were worth

Expected goals totals what the openings were worth, so the gap between it and the score is the finishing — and the luck. Under half a goal either way is called level: xG is an estimate and a smaller gap than that is inside its own error.

Line-ups

France
  • 16M. MaignanG
  • 2M. GustoD
  • 15I. KonateD
  • 26M. LacroixD
  • 19T. HernandezD
  • 18W. Zaire-EmeryM
  • 14A. RabiotM
  • 11M. OliseM
  • 24R. CherkiM
  • 20D. DoueM
  • 10K. MbappeF
Substitutes
  • 1B. SambaG
  • 23R. RisserG
  • 7O. DembeleF
  • 5J. KoundeD
  • 8A. TchouameniM
  • 17W. SalibaD
  • 25M. AklioucheM
  • 3L. DigneD
  • 13N. KanteM
England 4-1-4-1
  • 13D. HendersonG
  • 26J. QuansahD
  • 2E. KonsaD
  • 6M. GuehiD
  • 25D. SpenceD
  • 4D. RiceM
  • 7B. SakaM
  • 17M. RogersM
  • 21E. EzeM
  • 11M. RashfordM
  • 22I. ToneyF
Substitutes
  • 23J. TraffordG
  • 1J. PickfordG
  • 14J. HendersonM
  • 15D. BurnD
  • 19O. WatkinsF
  • 12T. ChalobahD
  • 24R. JamesD
  • 18A. GordonF
  • 20N. MaduekeF
Coach: Thomas Tuchel

UEFA Nations League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1France431072+510
2England4301143+119

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: France vs England

  • 10 December 2022England 1–2 FranceWorld Cup
  • 13 June 2017France 3–2 EnglandFriendlies
  • 11 June 2012France 1–1 EnglandEuro Championship

Leading scorers: France and England

France

GoalsAssists

  • M. Olise42

England

GoalsAssists

  • H. Kane61
  • A. Gordon31

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.