21 August 2026, 18:00 UTC

PAU vs Nancy Ligue 2 prediction & result

Nouste Camp, Pau
Full time0 – 1

Final score: PAU 0-1 Nancy.

Before kick-off the model made it 39% PAU, 26% draw, 35% Nancy — fair odds of 2.56, 3.85 and 2.86.

Most likely scoreline: 2-1.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

PAU at 39%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

PAU0%Draw4%Nancy96%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

Gaëtan Paquiez
14'
Axel Dodote
18'
43'
Nehemiah Fernandez
🔁L. Gadegbekuout: C. Fall
46'
🔁B. Leyeout: R. Openda
46'
Axel Bamba
54'
🔁L. Rajotout: T. Saettel
61'
61'
🔁N. Obougouout: B. Bokangu
68'
🔁N. Fernandezout: H. Tavares
68'
🔁N. Kandilout: M. Fofana
🔁G. Versiniout: A. Lefebvre
73'
86'
🔁W. Bouabdelliout: C. El Hansar
86'
🔁Z. Fdaouchout: Z. Ztouti
87'
⚽B. Bokanguassist: I. Housni
88'
Héliohdino Tavares
🔁J. Benetout: A. Briancon
89'

Match stats — PAU vs Nancy

46%Possession54%
15Shots8
1On target3
5Corners4

Line-ups

PAU 4-1-4-1
  • 1B. MaubleuG
  • 2T. PouillyD
  • 4A. DodoteD
  • 88A. BambaD
  • 29G. PaquiezD
  • 27L. GadegbekuM
  • 10G. VersiniM
  • 21J. BenetM
  • 5L. RajotM
  • 7H. BenaliM
  • 9B. LeyeF
Substitutes
  • 30E. SallesG
  • 23A. BrianconD
  • 39M. TourraineD
  • 8S. BasseD
  • 22R. Mimb BahengD
  • 6C. FallM
  • 11A. LefebvreF
  • 19T. SaettelF
  • 14R. Openda
Coach: Thierry Debes
Nancy 4-4-2
  • 1E. BasilioG
  • 4N. FernandezD
  • 77Y. NahounouD
  • 21E. MendyD
  • 44E. TacafredD
  • 70N. KandilM
  • 6K. KebeM
  • 8W. BouabdelliM
  • 7Z. FdaouchM
  • 9I. HousniF
  • 29N. ObougouF
Substitutes
  • 30G. LembetG
  • 14N. Saint-RufD
  • 2H. TavaresD
  • 17M. FofanaM
  • 45C. El HansarM
  • 11S. CisseF
  • 10A. DabasseF
  • 20B. BokanguM
  • 26Z. ZtoutiF
Coach: Oswald Tanchot

Form going into PAU vs Nancy

PAU

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0away to Dijon14 August 2026
  • L0-1Annecy8 August 2026

Nancy

All competitions we cover

  • L0-1Montpellier14 August 2026
  • D0-0away to Boulogne8 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 2 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5PAU126241613+320
2Nancy12813179+825

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: PAU vs Nancy

  • 2 May 2026PAU 1–3 NancyLigue 2
  • 29 August 2025Nancy 2–2 PAULigue 2
  • 14 May 2022Nancy 2–3 PAULigue 2
  • 24 July 2021PAU 2–1 NancyLigue 2
  • 5 February 2021Nancy 1–0 PAULigue 2
  • 3 October 2020PAU 1–1 NancyLigue 2

Leading scorers: PAU and Nancy

PAU

GoalsAssists

  • B. Leye41

Nancy

No player in Ligue 2's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Nancy won 1–0 at PAU. The model had leaned towards a win for PAU at 39% and given a win for Nancy 35%. The goal: B. Bokangu 87' for Nancy.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.