Clermont Foot
vs
Dijon
Ligue 2 prediction
The model makes it 45% Clermont Foot, 25% draw, 30% Dijon — fair odds of 2.22, 4.00 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Clermont Foot 1.67, Dijon 1.35.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 58%, under 2.5: 42%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Clermont Foot
- D0-0Reims8 August 2026
Dijon
- D1-1away to Montpellier8 August 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context.
Ligue 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Clermont Foot | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | Dijon | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Clermont Foot
No league goals recorded yet.
Dijon
- A. Lembezat1 goals
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Clermont Foot carry a model rating of 6.99 against 7.02 for Dijon. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Clermont Foot D; Dijon D.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.67 goals for Clermont Foot and 1.35 for Dijon. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Clermont Foot rate 0.95 in attack and 0.74 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dijon rate 1.30 and 0.93.
That points to 58% for over two and a half goals and 61% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Dijon, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 288 correct results out of 598 settled predictions (48%), with 58 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Clermont Foot the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Clermont Foot against 1.35 for Dijon. Clermont Foot's attack/defence rating is 0.95/0.74 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.3/0.93 for Dijon.