21 August 2026, 18:00 UTC

Dunkerque vs Montpellier Ligue 2 prediction & result

Stade Marcel Tribut, Dunkerque
Full time0 – 1

Final score: Dunkerque 0-1 Montpellier.

Before kick-off the model made it 44% Dunkerque, 16% draw, 40% Montpellier — fair odds of 2.27, 6.25 and 2.50.

Most likely scoreline: 3-2.

The model got this one wrong.

Published · updated

Has the model earned this number?

Dunkerque at 44%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

How the model saw it, minute by minute

Dunkerque0%Draw9%Montpellier91%

Rebuilt after the match from the model's pre-match expected goals, frozen in the log before kick-off, plus the score and cards as they stood at each minute — never anything later. A ball marks each of the 1 goal. The same replay scores the in-play model on the track record.

Match analysis

Match timeline

12'
Yael Mouanga
🔁V. Mayelaout: L. Vallier
46'
🔁E. Prutsevout: S. Keita
46'
54'
⚽N. Pays
58'
🔁N. Vidal-Cartouxout: D. Benlahlou
Alex Daho
60'
🔁A. Dahoout: M. Decherf
63'
🔁T. Massockout: K. Ayari
64'
69'
🔁N. Mukieleout: Y. Issoufou
🔁J. Morelout: E. Mayilla
78'
Khalil Ayari
90+5'
Souleymane Keita
90+3'
90+3'
Enzo Tchato Mbiayi

Match stats — Dunkerque vs Montpellier

58%Possession42%
12Shots11
3On target5
5Corners7

Line-ups

Dunkerque 4-2-3-1
  • 16M. PrevotG
  • 27A. LinguetD
  • 26O. SanganteD
  • 4B. LagaeD
  • 22V. MayelaD
  • 6J. MorelM
  • 18T. MassockM
  • 93A. DahoM
  • 10A. LebeauM
  • 11E. Prutsev
  • 9T. RobinetF
Substitutes
  • 73MohaG
  • 24L. VallierD
  • 2O. ToureD
  • 21L. Dziki LoussilahoD
  • 19S. KeitaM
  • 25F. AtoenM
  • 29M. DecherfM
  • 7K. AyariF
  • 94E. MayillaF
Coach: Albert Sanchez
Montpellier 4-2-3-1
  • 31S. NgapandouetnbuG
  • 29E. TchatoD
  • 15J. LaporteD
  • 6Y. MouangaD
  • 17T. Sainte-LuceD
  • 5F. TardieuM
  • 32H. AbderrebiM
  • 18N. PaysM
  • 40N. Vidal-CartouxM
  • 19N. MukieleM
  • 9L. Megnan-PaveF
Substitutes
  • 50V. DzodicG
  • 3N. El HannachD
  • 35M. ChambonD
  • 90G. AyemM
  • 77Everson JrM
  • 7Y. IssoufouF
  • 23D. BenlahlouF
Coach: Zoumana Camara

Form going into Dunkerque vs Montpellier

Dunkerque

All competitions we cover

  • D3-3away to Reims14 August 2026
  • W4-2Grenoble8 August 2026

Montpellier

All competitions we cover

  • W1-0away to Nancy14 August 2026
  • D1-1Dijon8 August 2026

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ligue 2 table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
10Dunkerque124351717015
3Montpellier12732189+924

Where the two sides stand today, not on the day of this match. Full table

Head-to-head: Dunkerque vs Montpellier

  • 5 January 2026Montpellier 1–3 DunkerqueLigue 2
  • 18 October 2025Dunkerque 0–1 MontpellierLigue 2

Leading scorers: Dunkerque and Montpellier

Dunkerque

GoalsAssists

  • E. Prutsev32

Montpellier

GoalsAssists

  • N. Pays52
  • Lacine Megnan-Pave42

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The result against the call

Montpellier won 1–0 at Dunkerque. The model had leaned towards a win for Dunkerque at 44% and given a win for Montpellier 40%. The goal: N. Pays 54' for Montpellier.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.