Silkeborg
vs
FC Midtjylland
Superliga prediction
The model makes it 40% Silkeborg, 24% draw, 36% FC Midtjylland — fair odds of 2.50, 4.17 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Silkeborg 1.68, FC Midtjylland 1.59.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Model insights
Form going into this match
Silkeborg
- W1-0Odense10 August 2026
- L1-3FC Copenhagen2 August 2026
- D1-1away to Randers FC27 July 2026
FC Midtjylland
- W2-1AC Horsens2 August 2026
- W3-2away to Sonderjyske26 July 2026
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model works from each side's rolling expected-goals ratings rather than from these results directly, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Silkeborg | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 4 |
| 4 | FC Midtjylland | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full tables
Leading scorers
Silkeborg
- O. Ross2 goals1 assists
- C. McCowatt1 goals2 assists
FC Midtjylland
- V. Byskov1 goals2 assists
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Silkeborg carry a model rating of 6.43 against 6.55 for FC Midtjylland. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
Recent form (most recent last): Silkeborg D-L-W; FC Midtjylland W-W.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.68 goals for Silkeborg and 1.59 for FC Midtjylland. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Silkeborg rate 0.66 in attack and 1.53 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Midtjylland rate 0.74 and 1.35.
That points to 63% for over two and a half goals and 65% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%).
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour FC Midtjylland, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 400 correct results out of 828 settled predictions (48%), with 78 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Silkeborg the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Silkeborg against 1.59 for FC Midtjylland. Silkeborg's attack/defence rating is 0.66/1.53 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.35 for FC Midtjylland.