Racing Santander
vs
Elche
La Liga prediction
The model makes it 61% Racing Santander, 18% draw, 21% Elche — fair odds of 1.64, 5.56 and 4.76. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1 (8%).
Expected goals: Racing Santander 2.66, Elche 1.54.
Both teams to score: 73%. Over 2.5 goals: 79%, under 2.5: 21%.
Model confidence: High.
Model insights
Head-to-head: Racing Santander vs Elche
- 2 March 2025Racing Santander 2–0 ElcheSegunda División
- 19 December 2024Elche 3–0 Racing SantanderSegunda División
- 4 May 2024Racing Santander 3–1 ElcheSegunda División
- 2 September 2023Elche 1–1 Racing SantanderSegunda División
- 4 July 2020Racing Santander 1–2 ElcheSegunda División
- 1 December 2019Elche 2–0 Racing SantanderSegunda División
The two sides
Racing Santander carry a model rating of 6.96 against 6.78 for Elche. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.66 goals for Racing Santander and 1.54 for Elche. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Racing Santander rate 1.53 in attack and 1.43 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Elche rate 0.77 and 0.92.
That points to 79% for over two and a half goals and 73% for both teams to score.
The three most likely scorelines are 2-1 (8%), 3-1 (7%), 1-1 (6%).
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 334 correct results out of 699 settled predictions (48%), with 66 exact scorelines (9%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Racing Santander the highest probability at 61%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.66 expected goals for Racing Santander against 1.54 for Elche. Racing Santander's attack/defence rating is 1.53/1.43 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/0.92 for Elche.