League Stage - 2 · 22 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

Borac Banja Luka vs KuPS UEFA Europa Conference League prediction

Gradski stadion Banja Luka, Banja Luka

Our model says: Borac Banja Luka 1–0 KuPS

The model makes it 56% Borac Banja Luka, 25% draw, 19% KuPS — fair odds of 1.79, 4.00 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (11%).

Expected goals: Borac Banja Luka 1.89, KuPS 0.89.

Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.

Model confidence: High.

Edge to Borac Banja Luka: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published · updated

Key facts

  • Borac Banja Luka are 2nd in Premijer Liga on 22 points from 9 games; KuPS are 3rd in Veikkausliiga on 48 points from 27 games.
  • Borac Banja Luka are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to BSK Banja Luka.
  • KuPS have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Inter Turku.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Borac Banja Luka vs KuPS

50%
Both teams to score
52%
Over 2.5 goals
48%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Borac Banja Luka win Draw KuPS win
  1. 1–011%
  2. 2–011%
  3. 1–111%
  4. 2–110%
  5. 3–07%
  6. 0–07%
  7. 3–16%

Scores read Borac Banja Luka first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 37%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Borac Banja Luka at 56% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Form going into Borac Banja Luka vs KuPS

Borac Banja Luka

  • W2-0BSK Banja Luka10 October 2026
  • W3-2away to Siroki Brijeg20 September 2026
  • W2-1away to Sloga Doboj16 September 2026
  • W1-0Zrinjski12 September 2026
  • L0-1away to FK Sarajevo6 September 2026

KuPS

  • L0-1away to Inter Turku11 October 2026
  • L0-1AC Oulu8 October 2026
  • W2-0away to VPS19 September 2026
  • D0-0HJK Helsinki13 September 2026
  • D1-1away to Gnistan8 September 2026

What these results say

  • Borac Banja Luka won 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Borac Banja Luka scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Every one of these 5 matches for KuPS had two goals or fewer.
  • KuPS failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Borac Banja Luka and KuPS in their domestic leagues

#TeamLeaguePWDLGFGAGDPts
2Borac Banja LukaPremijer Liga9711177+1022
3KuPSVeikkausliiga2713954126+1548

Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Full tables: Premijer Liga · Veikkausliiga

Leading scorers: Borac Banja Luka and KuPS

Borac Banja Luka

No player in Premijer Liga's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.

KuPS

GoalsAssists

  • J. Moreno50
  • J. Luyeye-Lutumba31
  • B. Armah30

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

The two sides

Borac Banja Luka carry a model rating of 6.59 against 6.39 for KuPS. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

What the model expects

Under the hood the model expects 1.89 goals for Borac Banja Luka and 0.89 for KuPS. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Borac Banja Luka rate 0.73 in attack and 1.23 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; KuPS rate 0.60 and 1.50.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Borac Banja Luka the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.89 expected goals for Borac Banja Luka against 0.89 for KuPS. Borac Banja Luka's attack/defence rating is 0.73/1.23 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.6/1.5 for KuPS.

Season stats

Borac Banja LukaKuPS
9Matches27
7W 1D 1LRecord13W 9D 5L
17 1.9 per gameGoals scored41 1.5 per game
7 0.8 per gameGoals conceded26 1.0 per game
4 of 9Clean sheets8 of 27
1 of 9Failed to score6 of 27
0 of 1Penalties scored2 of 3
9 1.0 per gameYellow cards35 1.3 per game
0Red cards3

Borac Banja Luka at home · KuPS away

5Played14
5W 0D 0LRecord7W 4D 3L
10–1Goals for – against20–11
4 of 5Clean sheets4 of 14

League matches only, this season — Borac Banja Luka in the Premijer Liga, KuPS in the Veikkausliiga. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All league matches this season: Borac Banja Luka 9 in the Premijer Liga, KuPS 27 in the Veikkausliiga.

Borac Banja Luka scored 215423
KuPS conceded 624455

Borac Banja Luka score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); KuPS have let in 4 there.

KuPS scored 8712536
Borac Banja Luka conceded 011302

KuPS score most often in the 31–45 minute window (12 goals); Borac Banja Luka have let in 1 there.

Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.

The next 3 matches, by difficulty

Borac Banja Luka

KuPS

Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.