League Stage - 2 · 22 October 2026, 19:00 UTC

Aarhus vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë UEFA Europa Conference League prediction

Cepheus Park, Randers

Our model says: Aarhus 2–0 Egnatia Rrogozhinë

The model makes it 69% Aarhus, 19% draw, 12% Egnatia Rrogozhinë — fair odds of 1.45, 5.26 and 8.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).

Expected goals: Aarhus 2.55, Egnatia Rrogozhinë 0.77.

Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 64%, under 2.5: 36%.

Model confidence: High.

One-sided: Aarhus are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published · updated

Key facts

  • Aarhus have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Sonderjyske.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Aarhus vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë

50%
Both teams to score
64%
Over 2.5 goals
36%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Aarhus win Draw Egnatia Rrogozhinë win
  1. 2–012%
  2. 3–010%
  3. 2–19%
  4. 1–09%
  5. 3–18%
  6. 1–17%
  7. 4–06%

Scores read Aarhus first. Each bar is the model's probability of that exact result, drawn against the likeliest one; the other scorelines it considered share the remaining 39%.

Has the model earned this number?

It puts Aarhus at 69% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 307 forecasts have landed in the 65–100% band; those outcomes actually happened 62.2% of the time, against an average forecast of 74.2%. In this range the model is over-confident, so read the figure above as optimistic rather than literal.

Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.

Form going into Aarhus vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë

Aarhus

  • W3-0Sonderjyske12 October 2026
  • D2-2away to AC Horsens20 September 2026
  • L0-2away to FC Nordsjaelland13 September 2026
  • D2-2Silkeborg5 September 2026
  • L0-2FC Midtjylland2 September 2026

Egnatia Rrogozhinë

  • L1-2away to Lillestrom27 August 2026
  • D0-0Lillestrom20 August 2026
  • W5-1Shamrock Rovers13 August 2026
  • L1-3away to Shamrock Rovers4 August 2026
  • D1-1away to Celje28 July 2026

What these results say

  • Aarhus failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Aarhus conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Egnatia Rrogozhinë failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Egnatia Rrogozhinë scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Egnatia Rrogozhinë conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.

Aarhus and Egnatia Rrogozhinë in their domestic leagues

#TeamLeaguePWDLGFGAGDPts
10AarhusSuperliga101541417-38

Each side's position in its own domestic league — they meet here from different competitions. Egnatia Rrogozhinë has not started the league season yet. Full tables: Superliga · UEFA Europa Conference League

Leading scorers: Aarhus and Egnatia Rrogozhinë

Aarhus

GoalsAssists

  • J. Serra40
  • C. McCowatt32

Egnatia Rrogozhinë

No leading scorers listed yet.

Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.

The two sides

Aarhus carry a model rating of 6.64 against 6.23 for Egnatia Rrogozhinë. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.

The model expects goals

Under the hood the model expects 2.55 goals for Aarhus and 0.77 for Egnatia Rrogozhinë. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.

Aarhus rate 0.80 in attack and 1.21 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Egnatia Rrogozhinë rate 0.53 and 1.85.

How this was produced

Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.

Full method: how the model works.

From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Aarhus the highest probability at 69%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.55 expected goals for Aarhus against 0.77 for Egnatia Rrogozhinë. Aarhus's attack/defence rating is 0.8/1.21 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.53/1.85 for Egnatia Rrogozhinë.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Aarhus

Egnatia Rrogozhinë

  • at Universitatea Craiova5 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 8%
  • vs Lincoln Red Imps FC26 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 47%
  • vs Kauno Žalgiris10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 39%
  • at SC Braga17 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 4%

Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.